HONG KONG - Premier League U22
•
28 Oct 2026
North District U22
HOME 12:30
0:0
Finished
Shatin U22
AWAYSelected market
Double Chance 12
1.15
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-9.35%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate75.7%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-8.31%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.63
56.9%DrawOdds 4.48
20.7%Away WinOdds 4.13
22.4% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
1.63 | 2.17 | -24.89% | |
XDraw |
4.48 | 4.72 | -5.16% | |
2Away Win |
4.13 | 3.05 | +35.26% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.20 | 1.49 | -19.30% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.15 | 1.27 | -9.35% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
2.15 | 1.85 | +15.93% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.30 | 1.71 | -24.01% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
3.30 | 2.41 | +37.11% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
2 shared opponents
North District U22
Points earned6
Goal difference+4
Odds performance
1.00
Shatin U22
Points earned4
Goal difference+1
Odds performance
1.50
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss| Shared opponent | North District U22 | Shatin U22 |
|---|---|---|
Southern District U22 |
5–23 pts |
1–03 pts |
Eastern District U22 |
3–23 pts |
1–11 pts |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
North District U22
| Position | #4 |
| Played | 5 |
| Wins | 2 |
| Draws | 2 |
| Losses | 1 |
| Goals For | 10 |
| Goals Against | 7 |
| Goal Difference | 3 |
| Points | 8 |
| Points / Game | 1.60 |
| Win Rate | 40.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.60 |
Shatin U22
| Position | #7 |
| Played | 4 |
| Wins | 1 |
| Draws | 2 |
| Losses | 1 |
| Goals For | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 |
| Goal Difference | -1 |
| Points | 5 |
| Points / Game | 1.25 |
| Win Rate | 25.0% |
| GD / Game | -0.25 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability46.08%
Draw Probability21.17%
Away Probability32.75%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
1.01 — 1.30
Wins1,514
Losses486
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.12
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
North District U22Last 6 completed
28 Oct
North District U22
0 – 0
Shatin U22
11 Oct
Hong Kong FC U22
1 – 0
North District U22
05 Oct
North District U22
2 – 2
Eastern AA U22
27 Sep
Southern District U22
2 – 5
North District U22
09 Sep
Eastern District U22
2 – 3
North District U22
Shatin U22Last 6 completed
28 Oct
North District U22
0 – 0
Shatin U22
14 Oct
Eastern District U22
1 – 1
Shatin U22
28 Sep
Shatin U22
1 – 3
Kitchee U22
27 Sep
Shatin U22
1 – 3
Kitchee U22
16 Sep
Shatin U22
1 – 0
Southern District U22