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Match Centre BRAZIL - Potiguar 2 Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
BRAZIL flag BRAZIL - Potiguar 2 • 28 Oct 2026

Mossoro

HOME
90+'
1:2
Live

Visao Celeste

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.20
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-11.39%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate74.2%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-9.71%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.62
57.1%
DrawOdds 4.02
23.0%
Away WinOdds 4.64
19.9%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.62 2.47 -34.39%
XDraw
 4.02 3.82 +5.16%
2Away Win
 4.64 3.00 +54.71%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.15 1.50 -23.34%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.35 -11.39%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.15 1.68 +27.93%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.26 1.82 -30.90%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 3.61 2.21 +63.01%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

3 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 11.1%

Based on 3 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Mossoro
Points earned1
Goal difference-7
Odds performance 9.00
Visao Celeste
Points earned0
Goal difference-7
Odds performance N/A
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentMossoroVisao Celeste
Alecrim
0–5
LossAway · 21 Oct 2026
0 pts
1–3
LossAway · 18 Oct 2026
0 pts
Baraunas
0–0
DrawAway · 11 Oct 2026
1 pts
0–2
LossHome · 07 Oct 2026
0 pts
Palmeira da Una
0–2
LossHome · 07 Oct 2026
0 pts
0–3
LossHome · 21 Oct 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Mossoro

Position#5
Played4
Wins0
Draws1
Losses3
Goals For1
Goals Against9
Goal Difference-8
Points1
Points / Game0.25
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game-2.00

Visao Celeste

Position#4
Played4
Wins1
Draws0
Losses3
Goals For3
Goals Against9
Goal Difference-6
Points3
Points / Game0.75
Win Rate25.0%
GD / Game-1.50
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability40.50%
Draw Probability26.16%
Away Probability33.34%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.05 — 1.35
Wins1,483
Losses517
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.01
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
MossoroLast 6 completed
28 Oct Mossoro 1 – 2 Visao Celeste
21 Oct Alecrim 5 – 0 Mossoro
11 Oct Baraunas 0 – 0 Mossoro
07 Oct Mossoro 0 – 2 Palmeira da Una
Visao CelesteLast 6 completed
28 Oct Mossoro 1 – 2 Visao Celeste
21 Oct Visao Celeste 0 – 3 Palmeira da Una
18 Oct Alecrim 3 – 1 Visao Celeste
07 Oct Visao Celeste 0 – 2 Baraunas