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Match Centre ALBANIA - Kategoria e Parë Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ALBANIA flag ALBANIA - Kategoria e Parë • 28 Oct 2026

Kukesi

HOME
12:30
1:0
Finished

Kastrioti

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.20
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-0.58%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate75.6%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-7.98%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.54
60.0%
DrawOdds 4.02
23.0%
Away WinOdds 5.41
17.1%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.54 1.43 +7.46%
XDraw
 4.02 5.83 -31.06%
2Away Win
 5.41 7.65 -29.29%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.10 1.15 -4.38%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.21 -0.58%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.30 3.31 -30.49%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.20 1.19 +1.07%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 4.22 6.34 -33.42%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team has the better goal difference

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Kukesi
Points earned0
Goal difference-5
Odds performance N/A
Kastrioti
Points earned0
Goal difference-2
Odds performance N/A
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentKukesiKastrioti
Pogradeci
0–3
LossHome · 16 Sep 2026
0 pts
1–2
LossAway · 12 Sep 2026
0 pts
Iliria Fushe-Kruje
1–3
LossAway · 12 Sep 2026
0 pts
0–1
LossHome · 24 Oct 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Kukesi

Position#1
Played8
Wins5
Draws0
Losses3
Goals For11
Goals Against8
Goal Difference3
Points15
Points / Game1.88
Win Rate62.5%
GD / Game0.38

Kastrioti

Position#9
Played8
Wins2
Draws2
Losses4
Goals For8
Goals Against11
Goal Difference-3
Points8
Points / Game1.00
Win Rate25.0%
GD / Game-0.38
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability69.78%
Draw Probability17.15%
Away Probability13.07%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.05 — 1.35
Wins1,511
Losses489
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.06
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
KukesiLast 6 completed
28 Oct Kukesi 1 – 0 Kastrioti
24 Oct Burreli 1 – 2 Kukesi
16 Oct Kukesi 2 – 0 Besa Kavaje
10 Oct Bylis 1 – 0 Kukesi
07 Oct Kukesi 3 – 2 Erzeni
20 Sep Kukesi 3 – 0 Korabi Peshkopi
KastriotiLast 6 completed
28 Oct Kukesi 1 – 0 Kastrioti
24 Oct Kastrioti 0 – 1 Iliria Fushe-Kruje
17 Oct Beselidhja Lezha 4 – 1 Kastrioti
11 Oct Kastrioti 2 – 0 Oriku
07 Oct Kastrioti 3 – 1 Luzi
20 Sep Sopoti Librazhd 1 – 1 Kastrioti