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Match Centre ALBANIA - Kategoria e Parë Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ALBANIA flag ALBANIA - Kategoria e Parë • 28 Oct 2026

Korabi Peshkopi

HOME
12:30
1:0
Finished

Burreli

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.30
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-15.52%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate74.2%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-7.80%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.90
48.7%
DrawOdds 3.37
27.5%
Away WinOdds 3.88
23.8%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.90 3.32 -42.83%
XDraw
 3.37 2.86 +18.01%
2Away Win
 3.88 2.87 +35.39%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.20 1.54 -21.87%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.54 -15.52%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.80 1.43 +25.84%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.39 2.16 -35.64%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.84 1.86 +52.50%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

3 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 3 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Korabi Peshkopi
Points earned4
Goal difference-2
Odds performance 2.25
Burreli
Points earned1
Goal difference-2
Odds performance 9.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentKorabi PeshkopiBurreli
Kukesi
0–3
LossAway · 20 Sep 2026
0 pts
1–2
LossHome · 24 Oct 2026
0 pts
Iliria Fushe-Kruje
1–1
DrawHome · 16 Sep 2026
1 pts
0–1
LossAway · 17 Oct 2026
0 pts
Beselidhja Lezha
2–1
WinAway · 12 Sep 2026
3 pts
0–0
DrawHome · 11 Oct 2026
1 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Korabi Peshkopi

Position#8
Played8
Wins3
Draws2
Losses3
Goals For5
Goals Against9
Goal Difference-4
Points11
Points / Game1.38
Win Rate37.5%
GD / Game-0.50

Burreli

Position#11
Played8
Wins1
Draws3
Losses4
Goals For6
Goals Against10
Goal Difference-4
Points6
Points / Game0.75
Win Rate12.5%
GD / Game-0.50
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability30.09%
Draw Probability35.02%
Away Probability34.89%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.15 — 1.45
Wins1,484
Losses516
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.95
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Korabi PeshkopiLast 6 completed
28 Oct Korabi Peshkopi 1 – 0 Burreli
24 Oct Besa Kavaje 2 – 0 Korabi Peshkopi
17 Oct Korabi Peshkopi 0 – 0 Bylis
11 Oct Korabi Peshkopi 0 – 2 Pogradeci
07 Oct Korabi Peshkopi 2 – 1 Terbuni
20 Sep Kukesi 3 – 0 Korabi Peshkopi
BurreliLast 6 completed
28 Oct Korabi Peshkopi 1 – 0 Burreli
24 Oct Burreli 1 – 2 Kukesi
24 Oct Burreli 0 – 1 Kukesi 1-2 Awaitingupdates Kastrioti
24 Oct Burreli 0 – 0 Kukesi 1-0 Awaitingupdates Kastrioti
17 Oct Iliria Fushe-Kruje 1 – 0 Burreli
11 Oct Burreli 0 – 0 Beselidhja Lezha