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Match Centre ALBANIA - Kategoria e Parë Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ALBANIA flag ALBANIA - Kategoria e Parë • 28 Oct 2026

Bylis

HOME
12:30
0:0
Finished

Besa Kavaje

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.30
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-3.15%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate73.8%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-8.35%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.77
33.4%
DrawOdds 3.28
28.2%
Away WinOdds 2.41
38.4%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.77 2.08 +33.16%
XDraw
 3.28 3.92 -16.37%
2Away Win
 2.41 3.78 -36.31%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.50 1.36 +10.36%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.34 -3.15%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.40 1.93 -27.30%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.01 1.55 +29.70%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.75 2.82 -37.92%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

5 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team has the better goal difference

Based on 5 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Bylis
Points earned9
Goal difference+2
Odds performance 1.67
Besa Kavaje
Points earned9
Goal difference+6
Odds performance 1.67
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentBylisBesa Kavaje
Korabi Peshkopi
0–0
DrawAway · 17 Oct 2026
1 pts
2–0
WinHome · 24 Oct 2026
3 pts
Kukesi
1–0
WinHome · 10 Oct 2026
3 pts
0–2
LossAway · 16 Oct 2026
0 pts
Iliria Fushe-Kruje
1–1
DrawAway · 20 Sep 2026
1 pts
2–0
WinHome · 11 Oct 2026
3 pts
Beselidhja Lezha
0–0
DrawHome · 16 Sep 2026
1 pts
1–2
LossAway · 20 Sep 2026
0 pts
Oriku
2–1
WinAway · 12 Sep 2026
3 pts
5–0
WinHome · 16 Sep 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Bylis

Position#5
Played8
Wins2
Draws6
Losses0
Goals For7
Goals Against5
Goal Difference2
Points12
Points / Game1.50
Win Rate25.0%
GD / Game0.25

Besa Kavaje

Position#2
Played8
Wins4
Draws2
Losses2
Goals For17
Goals Against7
Goal Difference10
Points14
Points / Game1.75
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game1.25
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability48.07%
Draw Probability25.50%
Away Probability26.43%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.15 — 1.45
Wins1,475
Losses525
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.93
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
BylisLast 6 completed
28 Oct Bylis 0 – 0 Besa Kavaje
23 Oct Bylis 2 – 2 Pogradeci
17 Oct Korabi Peshkopi 0 – 0 Bylis
10 Oct Bylis 1 – 0 Kukesi
07 Oct Bylis 4 – 1 Albpetrol
20 Sep Iliria Fushe-Kruje 1 – 1 Bylis
Besa KavajeLast 6 completed
28 Oct Bylis 0 – 0 Besa Kavaje
24 Oct Besa Kavaje 2 – 0 Korabi Peshkopi
16 Oct Kukesi 2 – 0 Besa Kavaje
11 Oct Besa Kavaje 2 – 0 Iliria Fushe-Kruje
07 Oct Besa Kavaje 4 – 1 Devolli
20 Sep Beselidhja Lezha 2 – 1 Besa Kavaje