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Match Centre ITALY - Serie A Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ITALY flag ITALY - Serie A • 28 Oct 2026

Venezia

HOME
63'
0:0
Live

Inter

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.20
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-11.66%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate75.1%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-8.62%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 7.56
12.7%
DrawOdds 5.07
19.0%
Away WinOdds 1.41
68.3%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 7.56 4.71 +60.47%
XDraw
 5.07 4.80 +5.54%
2Away Win
 1.41 1.73 -18.28%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 3.05 2.38 +28.23%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.26 -4.98%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.10 1.27 -13.35%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 5.95 3.73 +59.50%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.11 1.37 -18.76%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 100.0%

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Venezia
Points earned0
Goal difference-2
Odds performance N/A
Inter
Points earned3
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentVeneziaInter
Fiorentina
2–4
LossHome · 11 Sep 2026
0 pts
2–1
WinHome · 25 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Venezia

Position#20
Played8
Wins1
Draws0
Losses7
Goals For6
Goals Against17
Goal Difference-11
Points3
Points / Game0.38
Win Rate12.5%
GD / Game-1.38

Inter

Position#2
Played8
Wins7
Draws1
Losses0
Goals For23
Goals Against10
Goal Difference13
Points22
Points / Game2.75
Win Rate87.5%
GD / Game1.63
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability21.23%
Draw Probability20.82%
Away Probability57.96%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.05 — 1.35
Wins1,502
Losses498
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.05
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
VeneziaLast 6 completed
28 Oct Venezia 0 – 0 Inter
25 Oct Genoa 1 – 0 Venezia
17 Oct Venezia 1 – 0 Napoli
16 Oct Venezia 1 – 0 Napoli
12 Oct Atalanta 3 – 1 Venezia
19 Sep Venezia 0 – 2 Lazio
InterLast 6 completed
28 Oct Venezia 0 – 0 Inter
25 Oct Inter 2 – 1 Fiorentina
21 Oct Inter 1 – 0 Shakhtar Donetsk
17 Oct Bologna 1 – 3 Inter
16 Oct Bologna 1 – 3 Inter
13 Oct Inter 3 – 4 Club Brugge KV