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Match Centre ITALY - Serie A Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ITALY flag ITALY - Serie A • 28 Oct 2026

Parma

HOME
63'
0:0
Live

Udinese

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.35
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value10.87%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate72.6%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-8.55%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 3.04
31.6%
DrawOdds 3.24
29.7%
Away WinOdds 2.48
38.7%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 3.04 2.04 +48.86%
XDraw
 3.24 5.17 -37.35%
2Away Win
 2.48 3.15 -21.39%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.55 1.46 +5.87%
12Double Chance 12
 1.35 1.24 +8.90%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.40 1.96 -28.55%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.08 1.65 +26.27%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.70 2.54 -33.20%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team has the better goal difference

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Parma
Points earned0
Goal difference-6
Odds performance N/A
Udinese
Points earned0
Goal difference-3
Odds performance N/A
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentParmaUdinese
Torino
0–3
LossHome · 20 Oct 2026
0 pts
1–2
LossAway · 12 Oct 2026
0 pts
Inter
0–3
LossAway · 10 Oct 2026
0 pts
3–5
LossAway · 14 Sep 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Parma

Position#19
Played8
Wins1
Draws1
Losses6
Goals For5
Goals Against15
Goal Difference-10
Points4
Points / Game0.50
Win Rate12.5%
GD / Game-1.25

Udinese

Position#17
Played8
Wins1
Draws1
Losses6
Goals For9
Goals Against18
Goal Difference-9
Points4
Points / Game0.50
Win Rate12.5%
GD / Game-1.13
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability48.97%
Draw Probability19.34%
Away Probability31.70%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.20 — 1.50
Wins1,452
Losses548
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.85
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
ParmaLast 6 completed
28 Oct Parma 0 – 0 Udinese
24 Oct Lazio 2 – 1 Parma
20 Oct Parma 0 – 3 Torino
10 Oct Inter 3 – 0 Parma
20 Sep Parma 2 – 1 Genoa
14 Sep Como 2 – 1 Parma
UdineseLast 6 completed
28 Oct Parma 0 – 0 Udinese
25 Oct Udinese 0 – 2 AC Milan
18 Oct Udinese 0 – 3 Lecce
12 Oct Torino 2 – 1 Udinese
19 Sep Udinese 0 – 1 Cagliari
14 Sep Inter 5 – 3 Udinese