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Match Centre PANAMA - LPF - Apertura Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
PANAMA flag PANAMA - LPF - Apertura • 27 Oct 2026

Miguelito

HOME
01:30
VS
Postponed

UMECIT

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.20
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-10.51%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate75.4%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-8.23%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.44
62.6%
DrawOdds 3.86
23.4%
Away WinOdds 6.43
14.0%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.44 3.23 -55.38%
XDraw
 3.86 3.93 -1.86%
2Away Win
 6.43 2.29 +100.00%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.05 1.77 -40.77%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.34 -10.51%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.40 1.45 +65.63%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.14 2.41 -52.63%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 5.11 1.71 +100.00%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

4 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 50.0%

Based on 4 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Miguelito
Points earned6
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 2.00
UMECIT
Points earned12
Goal difference+5
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentMiguelitoUMECIT
Alianza
3–1
WinAway · 26 Oct 2026
3 pts
2–1
WinHome · 20 Oct 2026
3 pts
Union Cocle
3–1
WinHome · 06 Oct 2026
3 pts
1–0
WinHome · 22 Sep 2026
3 pts
Independiente
3–4
LossAway · 21 Sep 2026
0 pts
2–0
WinHome · 08 Sep 2026
3 pts
San Francisco
0–2
LossHome · 15 Sep 2026
0 pts
1–0
WinAway · 03 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Miguelito

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

UMECIT

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability30.99%
Draw Probability25.43%
Away Probability43.59%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.05 — 1.35
Wins1,508
Losses492
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.06
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
MiguelitoLast 6 completed
26 Oct Alianza 1 – 3 Miguelito
25 Oct Alianza 1 – 3 Miguelito
20 Oct Miguelito 0 – 2 Tauro
06 Oct Miguelito 3 – 1 Union Cocle
28 Sep Veraguas 1 – 1 Miguelito
21 Sep Independiente 4 – 3 Miguelito
UMECITLast 6 completed
24 Oct Arabe Unido 1 – 1 UMECIT
20 Oct UMECIT 2 – 1 Alianza
03 Oct San Francisco 0 – 1 UMECIT
27 Sep Deportivo Universitario 2 – 1 UMECIT
22 Sep UMECIT 1 – 0 Union Cocle
14 Sep Herrera 1 – 3 UMECIT