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Match Centre KYRGYZSTAN - Premier Liga Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
KYRGYZSTAN flag KYRGYZSTAN - Premier Liga • 27 Oct 2026

Muras United

HOME
13:00
1:0
Finished

Abdysh-Ata

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.10
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-17.96%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate77.1%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-8.27%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.19
78.9%
DrawOdds 6.59
14.2%
Away WinOdds 13.70
6.9%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.19 1.70 -29.87%
XDraw
 6.59 3.93 +67.50%
2Away Win
 13.70 6.39 +100.00%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.00 1.19 -15.65%
12Double Chance 12
 1.10 1.34 -17.96%
X2Double Chance X2
 4.45 2.43 +82.77%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.02 1.27 -19.41%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 11.70 4.76 +100.00%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 66.7%

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Muras United
Points earned3
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 1.00
Abdysh-Ata
Points earned1
Goal difference0
Odds performance 3.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentMuras UnitedAbdysh-Ata
Alay Osh
1–0
WinAway · 10 Sep 2026
3 pts
0–0
DrawAway · 10 Oct 2026
1 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Muras United

Position#3
Played27
Wins16
Draws8
Losses3
Goals For54
Goals Against24
Goal Difference30
Points56
Points / Game2.07
Win Rate59.3%
GD / Game1.11

Abdysh-Ata

Position#15
Played28
Wins3
Draws6
Losses19
Goals For19
Goals Against53
Goal Difference-34
Points15
Points / Game0.54
Win Rate10.7%
GD / Game-1.21
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability58.93%
Draw Probability25.42%
Away Probability15.65%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.01 — 1.25
Wins1,542
Losses458
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.24
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Muras UnitedLast 6 completed
27 Oct Muras United 1 – 0 Abdysh-Ata
20 Oct Dordoi Bishkek 0 – 2 Muras United
16 Oct Muras United 2 – 1 Talant
13 Oct Alga 3 – 2 Muras United
13 Oct Alga 2 – 0 Muras United
08 Oct Neftchi Kochkor-Ata 0 – 0 Muras United
Abdysh-AtaLast 6 completed
27 Oct Muras United 1 – 0 Abdysh-Ata
21 Oct Bars 1 – 0 Abdysh-Ata
15 Oct Toktogul 2 – 0 Abdysh-Ata
10 Oct Alay Osh 0 – 0 Abdysh-Ata