ITALY - Coppa Italia Primavera
•
27 Oct 2026
Sassuolo U20
HOME 14:00
VS
MATCH PREVIEW
Renate U19
AWAYSelected market
Double Chance 12
1.15
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-9.16%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate75.7%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-8.31%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.57
57.5%DrawOdds 4.20
21.5%Away WinOdds 4.29
21.0% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
1.57 | 2.44 | -35.56% | |
XDraw |
4.20 | 4.76 | -11.77% | |
2Away Win |
4.29 | 2.64 | +62.79% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.15 | 1.61 | -28.64% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.15 | 1.27 | -9.16% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
2.10 | 1.70 | +23.80% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.28 | 1.92 | -33.49% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
3.49 | 2.08 | +67.65% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet
There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Sassuolo U20
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Renate U19
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability41.05%
Draw Probability21.01%
Away Probability37.95%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
1.01 — 1.30
Wins1,514
Losses486
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.12
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Sassuolo U20Last 6 completed
23 Oct
Sassuolo U20
2 – 2
Torino U20
18 Oct
Genoa U20
1 – 1
Sassuolo U20
12 Oct
Sassuolo U20
4 – 2
Albinoleffe U20
19 Sep
Empoli U20
2 – 1
Sassuolo U20
12 Sep
Sassuolo U20
5 – 3
Bologna U20
Renate U19Last 6 completed
24 Oct
Pro Vercelli U19
1 – 2
Renate U19
17 Oct
Renate U19
2 – 1
Padova U19
10 Oct
Cittadella U19
1 – 1
Renate U19
26 Sep
Udinese U19
0 – 2
Renate U19
19 Sep
Lecco U19
1 – 4
Renate U19
12 Sep
Renate U19
1 – 1
Vicenza U19