ITALY - Coppa Italia Primavera
•
27 Oct 2026
Lazio U20
HOME 10:00
2:0
Finished
Sudtirol U19
AWAYSelected market
Double Chance 12
1.05
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-14.05%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate80.1%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-7.33%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.16
80.8%DrawOdds 7.49
12.5%Away WinOdds 13.90
6.7% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
1.16 | 2.06 | -43.58% | |
XDraw |
7.49 | 5.51 | +35.87% | |
2Away Win |
13.90 | 3.01 | +100.00% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.00 | 1.50 | -33.22% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.05 | 1.22 | -14.05% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
4.85 | 1.95 | +100.00% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.01 | 1.68 | -39.99% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
12.14 | 2.46 | +100.00% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet
There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Lazio U20
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Sudtirol U19
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability48.64%
Draw Probability18.14%
Away Probability33.22%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
1.01 — 1.20
Wins1,602
Losses398
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.52
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Lazio U20Last 6 completed
27 Oct
Lazio U20
2 – 0
Sudtirol U19
23 Oct
Atalanta U20
2 – 2
Lazio U20
17 Oct
Lazio U20
2 – 2
Inter U20
10 Oct
Bologna U20
4 – 1
Lazio U20
19 Sep
Lazio U20
1 – 1
Juventus U20
12 Sep
Cesena U20
0 – 1
Lazio U20
Sudtirol U19Last 6 completed
27 Oct
Lazio U20
2 – 0
Sudtirol U19
24 Oct
Sudtirol U19
1 – 2
Venezia U19
17 Oct
Lecco U19
2 – 2
Sudtirol U19
10 Oct
Sudtirol U19
1 – 1
Entella U19
26 Sep
Sudtirol U19
4 – 2
Ascoli U19
19 Sep
Reggiana U19
0 – 0
Sudtirol U19