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Match Centre ITALY - Serie A Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ITALY flag ITALY - Serie A • 27 Oct 2026

Torino

HOME
19:45
1:3
Finished

Como

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.30
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value2.34%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate73.8%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-8.35%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 5.30
18.1%
DrawOdds 3.73
25.7%
Away WinOdds 1.71
56.1%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 5.30 2.16 +100.00%
XDraw
 3.73 4.72 -21.02%
2Away Win
 1.71 3.08 -44.47%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 2.20 1.48 +48.55%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.27 +2.47%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.15 1.86 -38.30%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 3.83 1.70 +100.00%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.24 2.43 -48.91%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 16.7%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Torino
Points earned3
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 2.00
Como
Points earned4
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 1.50
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentTorinoComo
Parma
3–0
WinAway · 20 Oct 2026
3 pts
2–1
WinHome · 14 Sep 2026
3 pts
AS Roma
0–2
LossHome · 14 Sep 2026
0 pts
0–0
DrawHome · 11 Oct 2026
1 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Torino

Position#8
Played9
Wins4
Draws1
Losses4
Goals For14
Goals Against14
Goal Difference0
Points13
Points / Game1.44
Win Rate44.4%
GD / Game0.00

Como

Position#4
Played9
Wins6
Draws2
Losses1
Goals For17
Goals Against8
Goal Difference9
Points20
Points / Game2.22
Win Rate66.7%
GD / Game1.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability46.35%
Draw Probability21.17%
Away Probability32.48%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.15 — 1.45
Wins1,475
Losses525
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.93
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
TorinoLast 6 completed
27 Oct Torino 1 – 3 Como
23 Oct Torino 3 – 2 Monza
20 Oct Parma 0 – 3 Torino
12 Oct Torino 2 – 1 Udinese
19 Sep Bologna 1 – 1 Torino
14 Sep Torino 0 – 2 AS Roma
ComoLast 6 completed
27 Oct Torino 1 – 3 Como
24 Oct Como 2 – 0 Sassuolo
21 Oct Como 4 – 1 Manchester Utd
18 Oct Fiorentina 1 – 3 Como
14 Oct Feyenoord 3 – 2 Como
11 Oct Como 0 – 0 AS Roma