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Match Centre ITALY - Serie A Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ITALY flag ITALY - Serie A • 27 Oct 2026

Sassuolo

HOME
17:30
2:6
Finished

Lazio

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.30
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value0.34%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate74.1%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-7.98%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 3.92
24.5%
DrawOdds 3.78
25.4%
Away WinOdds 1.92
50.1%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 3.92 3.36 +16.55%
XDraw
 3.78 4.38 -13.76%
2Away Win
 1.92 2.11 -8.89%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.90 1.90 -0.16%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.30 +0.34%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.25 1.42 -12.16%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.84 2.60 +9.39%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.39 1.63 -14.54%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

3 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 3 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Sassuolo
Points earned4
Goal difference0
Odds performance 2.25
Lazio
Points earned7
Goal difference+5
Odds performance 1.29
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentSassuoloLazio
AC Milan
1–1
DrawHome · 11 Oct 2026
1 pts
2–2
DrawHome · 12 Sep 2026
1 pts
Monza
1–2
LossAway · 18 Sep 2026
0 pts
3–1
WinHome · 11 Oct 2026
3 pts
Juventus
3–2
WinHome · 13 Sep 2026
3 pts
3–0
WinAway · 18 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Sassuolo

Position#14
Played9
Wins2
Draws2
Losses5
Goals For14
Goals Against22
Goal Difference-8
Points8
Points / Game0.89
Win Rate22.2%
GD / Game-0.89

Lazio

Position#1
Played9
Wins8
Draws1
Losses0
Goals For22
Goals Against7
Goal Difference15
Points25
Points / Game2.78
Win Rate88.9%
GD / Game1.67
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability29.73%
Draw Probability22.81%
Away Probability47.45%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.15 — 1.45
Wins1,481
Losses519
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.94
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
SassuoloLast 6 completed
27 Oct Sassuolo 2 – 6 Lazio
24 Oct Como 2 – 0 Sassuolo
16 Oct Frosinone 4 – 2 Sassuolo
11 Oct Sassuolo 1 – 1 AC Milan
18 Sep Monza 2 – 1 Sassuolo
13 Sep Sassuolo 3 – 2 Juventus
LazioLast 6 completed
27 Oct Sassuolo 2 – 6 Lazio
24 Oct Lazio 2 – 1 Parma
18 Oct Juventus 0 – 3 Lazio
11 Oct Lazio 3 – 1 Monza
19 Sep Venezia 0 – 2 Lazio
12 Sep Lazio 2 – 2 AC Milan