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Match Centre ENGLAND - Isthmian League Premier Division Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ENGLAND - Isthmian League Premier Division • 27 Oct 2026

Leatherhead

HOME
20:45
VS
MATCH PREVIEW

Wingate & Finchley

AWAY
Selected market
Double Chance 12
1.25
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-1.13%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate74.9%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-7.91%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.68
54.9%
DrawOdds 3.66
25.2%
Away WinOdds 4.62
20.0%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.68 2.04 -17.64%
XDraw
 3.66 4.78 -23.50%
2Away Win
 4.62 3.33 +38.94%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.15 1.43 -19.59%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.26 -1.13%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.05 1.96 +4.50%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.28 1.61 -20.67%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 3.51 2.63 +33.46%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team has the better goal difference

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Leatherhead
Points earned3
Goal difference0
Odds performance 2.00
Wingate & Finchley
Points earned3
Goal difference-2
Odds performance 2.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentLeatherheadWingate & Finchley
Welling
0–1
LossAway · 27 Oct 2026
0 pts
1–4
LossAway · 12 Sep 2026
0 pts
Aveley
2–1
WinAway · 12 Sep 2026
3 pts
4–3
WinAway · 14 Sep 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Leatherhead

Position#14
Played11
Wins4
Draws3
Losses4
Goals For18
Goals Against18
Goal Difference0
Points15
Points / Game1.36
Win Rate36.4%
GD / Game0.00

Wingate & Finchley

Position#12
Played12
Wins6
Draws2
Losses4
Goals For24
Goals Against23
Goal Difference1
Points20
Points / Game1.67
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game0.08
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability49.02%
Draw Probability20.90%
Away Probability30.07%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.10 — 1.40
Wins1,498
Losses502
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.01
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
LeatherheadLast 6 completed
27 Oct Welling 1 – 0 Leatherhead
20 Oct Yeovil 5 – 2 Leatherhead
17 Oct Leatherhead 3 – 3 Yeovil
10 Oct Leatherhead 1 – 2 Cheshunt
03 Oct Leatherhead 1 – 0 Hanworth
22 Sep Three Bridges 3 – 3 Leatherhead
Wingate & FinchleyLast 6 completed
24 Oct Needham Market 0 – 2 Wingate & Finchley
20 Oct Wingate & Finchley 4 – 2 Carshalton
17 Oct Wingate & Finchley 4 – 1 Stanway
13 Oct Wingate & Finchley 2 – 0 Ramsgate
13 Oct Wingate & Finchley 2 – 2 Ramsgate
10 Oct Dartford 2 – 1 Wingate & Finchley