SOUTH AFRICA - Super League Women
•
27 Oct 2026
Mamelodi Sundowns W
HOME 13:00
VS
Postponed
Copperbelt Ladies W
AWAYSelected market
Home Win
1.04
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-51.47%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample1,430Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate59.0%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-35.23%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.04
89.0%DrawOdds 11.40
8.1%Away WinOdds 32.00
2.9% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
1.04 | 2.14 | -51.47% | |
XDraw |
11.40 | 3.52 | +100.00% | |
2Away Win |
32.00 | 4.01 | +100.00% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
0.95 | 1.33 | -28.70% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.00 | 1.40 | -28.39% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
8.40 | 1.87 | +100.00% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
0.97 | 1.53 | -36.79% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
29.70 | 2.87 | +100.00% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
4 shared opponents
Mamelodi Sundowns W
Points earned10
Goal difference+16
Odds performance
1.20
Copperbelt Ladies W
Points earned4
Goal difference-1
Odds performance
3.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss| Shared opponent | Mamelodi Sundowns W | Copperbelt Ladies W |
|---|---|---|
TS Galaxy W |
5–03 pts |
0–10 pts |
Western Cape Univ. W |
0–01 pts |
0–10 pts |
Richmond United W |
8–03 pts |
1–03 pts |
Pretoria U. W |
3–03 pts |
1–11 pts |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Mamelodi Sundowns W
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Copperbelt Ladies W
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability46.66%
Draw Probability28.39%
Away Probability24.95%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
1.01 — 1.19
Wins843
Losses587
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.72
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Mamelodi Sundowns WLast 6 completed
25 Oct
TS Galaxy W
0 – 5
Mamelodi Sundowns W
17 Oct
Mamelodi Sundowns W
0 – 0
Western Cape Univ. W
04 Oct
Richmond United W
0 – 8
Mamelodi Sundowns W
26 Sep
Copperbelt Ladies W
0 – 4
Mamelodi Sundowns W
20 Sep
Mamelodi Sundowns W
3 – 0
Pretoria U. W
11 Sep
Diepkloof W
0 – 1
Mamelodi Sundowns W
Copperbelt Ladies WLast 6 completed
24 Oct
Copperbelt Ladies W
0 – 1
Western Cape Univ. W
17 Oct
Pretoria U. W
1 – 1
Copperbelt Ladies W
02 Oct
Copperbelt Ladies W
2 – 2
Stellenbosch W
26 Sep
Copperbelt Ladies W
0 – 4
Mamelodi Sundowns W
19 Sep
Copperbelt Ladies W
0 – 1
TS Galaxy W
13 Sep
Richmond United W
0 – 1
Copperbelt Ladies W