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Match Centre GIBRALTAR - National League Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
GIBRALTAR flag GIBRALTAR - National League • 27 Oct 2026

Lions Gibraltar

HOME
20:00
VS
Postponed

Mons Calpe

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
5.21
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value25.11%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample335Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate35.8%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI88.01%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 5.21
17.3%
DrawOdds 4.89
18.4%
Away WinOdds 1.40
64.3%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 5.21 2.78 +87.61%
XDraw
 4.89 5.03 -2.84%
2Away Win
 1.40 2.27 -38.23%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 2.50 1.79 +39.70%
12Double Chance 12
 1.10 1.25 -11.86%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.10 1.56 -29.61%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 4.41 2.23 +98.18%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.19 1.82 -34.48%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Lions Gibraltar
Points earned0
Goal difference-3
Odds performance N/A
Mons Calpe
Points earned1
Goal difference0
Odds performance 3.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentLions GibraltarMons Calpe
Lincoln Red Imps
0–3
LossAway · 25 Oct 2026
0 pts
1–1
DrawHome · 13 Sep 2026
1 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Lions Gibraltar

Position#8
Played7
Wins2
Draws1
Losses4
Goals For10
Goals Against16
Goal Difference-6
Points7
Points / Game1.00
Win Rate28.6%
GD / Game-0.86

Mons Calpe

Position#4
Played6
Wins4
Draws1
Losses1
Goals For13
Goals Against6
Goal Difference7
Points13
Points / Game2.17
Win Rate66.7%
GD / Game1.17
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability36.01%
Draw Probability19.87%
Away Probability44.12%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

5.06 — 5.36
Wins120
Losses215
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.21
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Lions GibraltarLast 6 completed
25 Oct Lincoln Red Imps 3 – 0 Lions Gibraltar
10 Oct St Josephs 2 – 0 Lions Gibraltar
20 Sep Lions Gibraltar 0 – 4 Glacis United
12 Sep Europa Point 4 – 2 Lions Gibraltar
Mons CalpeLast 6 completed
24 Oct Mons Calpe 4 – 0 Hound Dogs
12 Oct Mons Calpe 3 – 2 Lynx
20 Sep Europa FC 1 – 2 Mons Calpe
13 Sep Mons Calpe 1 – 1 Lincoln Red Imps