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Match Centre ENGLAND - Southern League Premier South Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ENGLAND - Southern League Premier South • 27 Oct 2026

Taunton

HOME
19:45
VS
Postponed

Frome

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
2.11
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-15.39%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate45.4%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-4.50%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.11
42.7%
DrawOdds 3.55
25.4%
Away WinOdds 2.83
31.9%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.11 1.70 +24.48%
XDraw
 3.55 5.12 -30.69%
2Away Win
 2.83 4.66 -39.21%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.30 1.27 +2.07%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.24 -3.43%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.55 2.44 -36.44%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.63 1.36 +19.49%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.19 3.75 -41.54%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Away team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Taunton
Points earned0
Goal difference-1
Odds performance N/A
Frome
Points earned1
Goal difference0
Odds performance 3.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentTauntonFrome
Hanwell Town
1–2
LossHome · 10 Oct 2026
0 pts
2–2
DrawHome · 12 Sep 2026
1 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Taunton

Position#10
Played12
Wins6
Draws1
Losses5
Goals For32
Goals Against25
Goal Difference7
Points19
Points / Game1.58
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game0.58

Frome

Position#11
Played13
Wins5
Draws4
Losses4
Goals For20
Goals Against16
Goal Difference4
Points19
Points / Game1.46
Win Rate38.5%
GD / Game0.31
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability59.00%
Draw Probability19.52%
Away Probability21.48%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.96 — 2.26
Wins907
Losses1,093
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.99
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
TauntonLast 6 completed
24 Oct Taunton 1 – 4 Wimborne
20 Oct Taunton 4 – 0 Bracknell
17 Oct Evesham 1 – 4 Taunton
10 Oct Taunton 1 – 2 Hanwell Town
30 Sep Frome 2 – 2 Taunton
26 Sep Havant & W 2 – 3 Taunton
FromeLast 6 completed
17 Oct Malvern Town 2 – 0 Frome
13 Oct Chippenham 0 – 2 Frome
10 Oct Frome 1 – 1 Sholing
03 Oct Yate Town 3 – 3 Frome
30 Sep Frome 2 – 2 Taunton
22 Sep Plymouth Parkway 2 – 0 Frome