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Match Centre SCOTLAND - Lowland League Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SCOTLAND - Lowland League • 27 Oct 2026

Linlithgow Rose

HOME
19:45
VS
Postponed

Musselburgh

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
7.28
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value100.00%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample107Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate33.6%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI144.58%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 7.28
12.7%
DrawOdds 5.46
17.0%
Away WinOdds 1.32
70.3%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 7.28 1.69 +100.00%
XDraw
 5.46 4.40 +24.23%
2Away Win
 1.32 5.50 -75.99%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 3.10 1.22 +100.00%
12Double Chance 12
 1.10 1.29 -15.03%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.05 2.44 -57.01%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 6.09 1.31 +100.00%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.10 4.25 -74.10%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 66.7%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Linlithgow Rose
Points earned6
Goal difference+5
Odds performance 1.00
Musselburgh
Points earned2
Goal difference0
Odds performance 3.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentLinlithgow RoseMusselburgh
Berwick
1–0
WinAway · 17 Oct 2026
3 pts
0–0
DrawAway · 19 Sep 2026
1 pts
Broxburn Athletic
4–0
WinAway · 19 Sep 2026
3 pts
0–0
DrawAway · 17 Oct 2026
1 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Linlithgow Rose

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

Musselburgh

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability59.06%
Draw Probability22.75%
Away Probability18.19%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

7.13 — 7.43
Wins36
Losses71
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.28
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Linlithgow RoseLast 6 completed
17 Oct Berwick 0 – 1 Linlithgow Rose
03 Oct Linlithgow Rose 0 – 1 Clydebank FC
26 Sep Linlithgow Rose 4 – 1 Bo'ness United
19 Sep Broxburn Athletic 0 – 4 Linlithgow Rose
15 Sep Linlithgow Rose 4 – 0 Dunipace
12 Sep East Stirlingshire 2 – 4 Linlithgow Rose
MusselburghLast 6 completed
17 Oct Broxburn Athletic 0 – 0 Musselburgh
03 Oct Musselburgh 2 – 1 Lossiemouth
26 Sep Musselburgh 1 – 1 Tranent
19 Sep Berwick 0 – 0 Musselburgh
15 Sep Hill Of Beath 1 – 0 Musselburgh
12 Sep Musselburgh 2 – 0 Gala Fairydean