SRI LANKA - Super League - Relegation Group
•
27 Oct 2026
Ratnam
HOME 09:30
VS
Postponed
Defenders FC
AWAYSelected market
Home Win
7.37
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value100.00%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample82Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate36.6%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI169.99%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 7.37
12.2%DrawOdds 5.77
15.6%Away WinOdds 1.25
72.1% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
7.37 | 1.95 | +100.00% | |
XDraw |
5.77 | 5.24 | +10.14% | |
2Away Win |
1.25 | 3.37 | -62.88% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
3.25 | 1.42 | +100.00% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.05 | 1.24 | -15.04% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.05 | 2.05 | -48.78% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
6.45 | 1.58 | +100.00% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
1.09 | 2.72 | -60.00% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
2 shared opponents
Ratnam
Points earned3
Goal difference0
Odds performance
2.00
Defenders FC
Points earned3
Goal difference+3
Odds performance
2.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss| Shared opponent | Ratnam | Defenders FC |
|---|---|---|
New Young's SC |
3–03 pts |
5–13 pts |
Blue Eagles |
1–40 pts |
1–20 pts |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Ratnam
| Position | #3 |
| Played | 2 |
| Wins | 1 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 1 |
| Goals For | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 3 |
| Points / Game | 1.50 |
| Win Rate | 50.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Defenders FC
| Position | #2 |
| Played | 2 |
| Wins | 1 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 1 |
| Goals For | 6 |
| Goals Against | 3 |
| Goal Difference | 3 |
| Points | 3 |
| Points / Game | 1.50 |
| Win Rate | 50.0% |
| GD / Game | 1.50 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability51.22%
Draw Probability19.09%
Away Probability29.69%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
7.22 — 7.52
Wins30
Losses52
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals4.05
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
RatnamLast 6 completed
20 Oct
New Young's SC
0 – 3
Ratnam
13 Oct
Blue Eagles
4 – 1
Ratnam
14 Sep
Ratnam
1 – 3
Blue Star
Defenders FCLast 6 completed
20 Oct
Blue Eagles
2 – 1
Defenders FC
09 Oct
Defenders FC
5 – 1
New Young's SC
11 Sep
Defenders FC
4 – 0
New Young's SC