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Match Centre BOTSWANA - Premier League Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
BOTSWANA flag BOTSWANA - Premier League • 27 Oct 2026

Prisons XI Gaborone

HOME
14:00
1:1
Finished

Matebele

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
2.48
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value23.33%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate40.2%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-0.08%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.48
35.9%
DrawOdds 2.94
30.3%
Away WinOdds 2.64
33.8%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.48 1.82 +35.93%
XDraw
 2.94 4.51 -34.84%
2Away Win
 2.64 4.34 -39.21%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.35 1.30 +3.92%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.28 +1.19%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.40 2.21 -36.74%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.81 1.42 +27.46%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.93 3.38 -42.91%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 100.0%

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Prisons XI Gaborone
Points earned3
Goal difference+2
Odds performance 1.00
Matebele
Points earned0
Goal difference-1
Odds performance N/A
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentPrisons XI GaboroneMatebele
Enesia
3–1
WinHome · 10 Oct 2026
3 pts
0–1
LossAway · 12 Sep 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Prisons XI Gaborone

Position#14
Played7
Wins1
Draws2
Losses4
Goals For5
Goals Against9
Goal Difference-4
Points5
Points / Game0.71
Win Rate14.3%
GD / Game-0.57

Matebele

Position#13
Played7
Wins1
Draws2
Losses4
Goals For8
Goals Against11
Goal Difference-3
Points5
Points / Game0.71
Win Rate14.3%
GD / Game-0.43
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability54.81%
Draw Probability22.16%
Away Probability23.02%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.33 — 2.63
Wins803
Losses1,197
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.87
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Prisons XI GaboroneLast 6 completed
27 Oct Prisons XI Gaborone 1 – 1 Matebele
17 Oct Morupule 0 – 0 Prisons XI Gaborone
10 Oct Prisons XI Gaborone 3 – 1 Enesia
03 Oct Nico United 3 – 0 Prisons XI Gaborone
12 Sep Sua Flamingoes 1 – 0 Prisons XI Gaborone
MatebeleLast 6 completed
27 Oct Prisons XI Gaborone 1 – 1 Matebele
18 Oct Matebele 4 – 2 Township Rollers
10 Oct Tafic FC 2 – 2 Matebele
03 Oct Matebele 1 – 3 Tonota
12 Sep Enesia 1 – 0 Matebele