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Match Centre SWEDEN - Allsvenskan Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SWEDEN flag SWEDEN - Allsvenskan • 28 Oct 2026

Halmstad

HOME
45+'
0:2
Live

Malmo FF

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
4.78
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value100.00%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample477Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate36.7%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI75.46%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 4.78
19.9%
DrawOdds 4.03
23.6%
Away WinOdds 1.68
56.6%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 4.78 1.99 +100.00%
XDraw
 4.03 3.49 +15.55%
2Away Win
 1.68 4.74 -64.54%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 2.20 1.27 +73.56%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.40 -10.84%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.20 2.01 -40.26%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 3.60 1.42 +100.00%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.26 3.38 -62.71%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Halmstad
Points earned3
Goal difference-3
Odds performance 2.00
Malmo FF
Points earned1
Goal difference-2
Odds performance 6.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentHalmstadMalmo FF
Vasteras SK
2–1
WinAway · 23 Oct 2026
3 pts
0–2
LossAway · 19 Sep 2026
0 pts
Elfsborg
0–4
LossAway · 12 Oct 2026
0 pts
0–0
DrawAway · 23 Oct 2026
1 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Halmstad

Position#16
Played25
Wins4
Draws5
Losses16
Goals For18
Goals Against46
Goal Difference-28
Points17
Points / Game0.68
Win Rate16.0%
GD / Game-1.12

Malmo FF

Position#8
Played25
Wins11
Draws4
Losses10
Goals For38
Goals Against34
Goal Difference4
Points37
Points / Game1.48
Win Rate44.0%
GD / Game0.16
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability50.22%
Draw Probability28.67%
Away Probability21.11%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

4.63 — 4.93
Wins175
Losses302
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.14
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
HalmstadLast 6 completed
28 Oct Halmstad 0 – 2 Malmo FF
23 Oct Vasteras SK 1 – 2 Halmstad
18 Oct Halmstad 0 – 1 Hammarby
12 Oct Elfsborg 4 – 0 Halmstad
20 Sep Halmstad 2 – 1 AIK
12 Sep Goteborg 2 – 1 Halmstad
Malmo FFLast 6 completed
28 Oct Halmstad 0 – 2 Malmo FF
23 Oct Elfsborg 0 – 0 Malmo FF
18 Oct Malmo FF 0 – 1 Hacken
12 Oct Malmo FF 1 – 0 Kalmar
19 Sep Vasteras SK 2 – 0 Malmo FF
13 Sep Malmo FF 4 – 1 Orgryte