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Match Centre SLOVENIA - 3. SNL - East Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SLOVENIA flag SLOVENIA - 3. SNL - East • 28 Oct 2026

Korotan

HOME
Half Time
2:0
Live

Sampion Celje

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
1.49
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value11.78%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate54.5%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-19.33%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.49
62.1%
DrawOdds 4.46
20.8%
Away WinOdds 5.41
17.1%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.49 1.33 +11.78%
XDraw
 4.46 7.88 -43.41%
2Away Win
 5.41 8.14 -33.51%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.10 1.14 -3.52%
12Double Chance 12
 1.15 1.15 +0.41%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.45 4.00 -38.80%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.19 1.16 +2.25%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 4.33 7.10 -39.05%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

3 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 11.1%

Based on 3 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Korotan
Points earned1
Goal difference-3
Odds performance 9.00
Sampion Celje
Points earned0
Goal difference-7
Odds performance N/A
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentKorotanSampion Celje
Odranci
1–3
LossHome · 17 Oct 2026
0 pts
1–5
LossAway · 27 Sep 2026
0 pts
Dobrovce
0–1
LossAway · 10 Oct 2026
0 pts
0–2
LossHome · 19 Sep 2026
0 pts
Fuzinar
4–4
DrawHome · 03 Oct 2026
1 pts
3–4
LossAway · 12 Sep 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Korotan

Position#10
Played10
Wins2
Draws5
Losses3
Goals For14
Goals Against15
Goal Difference-1
Points11
Points / Game1.10
Win Rate20.0%
GD / Game-0.10

Sampion Celje

Position#14
Played10
Wins1
Draws1
Losses8
Goals For11
Goals Against23
Goal Difference-12
Points4
Points / Game0.40
Win Rate10.0%
GD / Game-1.20
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability75.02%
Draw Probability12.69%
Away Probability12.29%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.34 — 1.64
Wins1,089
Losses911
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.26
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
KorotanLast 6 completed
28 Oct Korotan 2 – 0 Sampion Celje
25 Oct Korotan 0 – 2 Celje
17 Oct Korotan 1 – 3 Odranci
10 Oct Dobrovce 1 – 0 Korotan
03 Oct Korotan 4 – 4 Fuzinar
26 Sep Limbus-Pekre 1 – 3 Korotan
Sampion CeljeLast 6 completed
28 Oct Korotan 2 – 0 Sampion Celje
17 Oct NK Ormoz 2 – 0 Sampion Celje
10 Oct Sampion Celje 0 – 2 Hajdina
04 Oct Videm 1 – 0 Sampion Celje
27 Sep Odranci 5 – 1 Sampion Celje
19 Sep Sampion Celje 0 – 2 Dobrovce