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Match Centre SLOVENIA - 3. SNL - East Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SLOVENIA flag SLOVENIA - 3. SNL - East • 28 Oct 2026

Odranci

HOME
13:15
6:0
Finished

NK Smartno

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
1.33
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value11.70%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate57.4%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-23.22%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.33
69.5%
DrawOdds 5.47
16.9%
Away WinOdds 6.83
13.5%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.33 1.19 +11.70%
XDraw
 5.47 11.79 -53.59%
2Away Win
 6.83 13.28 -48.56%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.05 1.08 -2.91%
12Double Chance 12
 1.10 1.09 +0.67%
X2Double Chance X2
 3.05 6.24 -51.15%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.12 1.09 +2.78%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 5.74 12.15 -52.76%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Home team has the better goal difference

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Odranci
Points earned3
Goal difference+2
Odds performance 1.00
NK Smartno
Points earned3
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 1.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentOdranciNK Smartno
Dobrovce
3–1
WinAway · 12 Sep 2026
3 pts
4–3
WinAway · 17 Oct 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Odranci

Position#1
Played11
Wins9
Draws2
Losses0
Goals For36
Goals Against12
Goal Difference24
Points29
Points / Game2.64
Win Rate81.8%
GD / Game2.18

NK Smartno

Position#4
Played11
Wins6
Draws1
Losses4
Goals For27
Goals Against28
Goal Difference-1
Points19
Points / Game1.73
Win Rate54.5%
GD / Game-0.09
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability83.98%
Draw Probability8.48%
Away Probability7.53%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.18 — 1.48
Wins1,148
Losses852
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.31
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
OdranciLast 6 completed
28 Oct Odranci 6 – 0 NK Smartno
24 Oct Marjeta na Dravskem polju 2 – 3 Odranci
17 Oct Korotan 1 – 3 Odranci
10 Oct Odranci 3 – 0 NK Ormoz
03 Oct Hajdina 0 – 0 Odranci
27 Sep Odranci 5 – 1 Sampion Celje
NK SmartnoLast 6 completed
28 Oct Odranci 6 – 0 NK Smartno
17 Oct Dobrovce 3 – 4 NK Smartno
10 Oct Fuzinar 5 – 1 NK Smartno
03 Oct NK Smartno 4 – 0 Limbus-Pekre
26 Sep Ljutomer 1 – 2 NK Smartno
19 Sep NK Smartno 8 – 1 Podvinci