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Match Centre SLOVENIA - 3. SNL - East Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SLOVENIA flag SLOVENIA - 3. SNL - East • 28 Oct 2026

Limbus-Pekre

HOME
13:00
1:3
Finished

Podvinci

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
3.42
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value1.19%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample1,375Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate38.9%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI32.64%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 3.42
27.1%
DrawOdds 4.24
21.8%
Away WinOdds 1.81
51.1%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 3.42 1.80 +90.49%
XDraw
 4.24 5.33 -20.47%
2Away Win
 1.81 3.91 -53.76%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.90 1.34 +41.47%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.23 -2.51%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.25 2.26 -44.62%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.70 1.46 +85.11%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.43 3.18 -55.04%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

4 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team has the better goal difference

Based on 4 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Limbus-Pekre
Points earned4
Goal difference-4
Odds performance 3.00
Podvinci
Points earned4
Goal difference-6
Odds performance 3.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentLimbus-PekrePodvinci
NK Carda Martjanci
3–1
WinAway · 17 Oct 2026
3 pts
2–2
DrawAway · 04 Oct 2026
1 pts
Race
1–1
DrawHome · 10 Oct 2026
1 pts
0–1
LossHome · 26 Sep 2026
0 pts
NK Smartno
0–4
LossAway · 03 Oct 2026
0 pts
1–8
LossAway · 19 Sep 2026
0 pts
Korotan
1–3
LossHome · 26 Sep 2026
0 pts
2–0
WinHome · 12 Sep 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Limbus-Pekre

Position#13
Played11
Wins2
Draws2
Losses7
Goals For11
Goals Against26
Goal Difference-15
Points8
Points / Game0.73
Win Rate18.2%
GD / Game-1.36

Podvinci

Position#6
Played11
Wins5
Draws2
Losses4
Goals For18
Goals Against20
Goal Difference-2
Points17
Points / Game1.55
Win Rate45.5%
GD / Game-0.18
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability55.70%
Draw Probability18.76%
Away Probability25.54%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

3.27 — 3.57
Wins535
Losses840
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.01
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Limbus-PekreLast 6 completed
28 Oct Limbus-Pekre 1 – 3 Podvinci
17 Oct NK Carda Martjanci 1 – 3 Limbus-Pekre
10 Oct Limbus-Pekre 1 – 1 Race
03 Oct NK Smartno 4 – 0 Limbus-Pekre
26 Sep Limbus-Pekre 1 – 3 Korotan
19 Sep NK Ormoz 4 – 0 Limbus-Pekre
PodvinciLast 6 completed
28 Oct Limbus-Pekre 1 – 3 Podvinci
24 Oct Podvinci 0 – 1 Radomlje
10 Oct Podvinci 0 – 2 Videm
04 Oct NK Carda Martjanci 2 – 2 Podvinci
29 Sep Podvinci 2 – 1 Ljutomer
26 Sep Podvinci 0 – 1 Race