UGANDA - Premier League
•
27 Oct 2026
Villa
HOME 13:00
VS
MATCH PREVIEW
Blacks Power
AWAYSelected market
Home Win
1.18
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-6.58%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate60.2%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-28.10%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.18
76.5%DrawOdds 4.90
18.4%Away WinOdds 18.00
5.0% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
1.18 | 1.38 | -14.55% | |
XDraw |
4.90 | 5.73 | -14.49% | |
2Away Win |
18.00 | 9.87 | +82.33% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
0.95 | 1.11 | -14.62% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.10 | 1.21 | -9.20% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
3.85 | 3.63 | +6.19% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.00 | 1.14 | -12.27% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
15.20 | 8.15 | +86.52% |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Villa
| Position | #2 |
| Played | 7 |
| Wins | 5 |
| Draws | 2 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 16 |
| Goals Against | 3 |
| Goal Difference | 13 |
| Points | 17 |
| Points / Game | 2.43 |
| Win Rate | 71.4% |
| GD / Game | 1.86 |
Blacks Power
| Position | #5 |
| Played | 7 |
| Wins | 4 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 3 |
| Goals For | 9 |
| Goals Against | 11 |
| Goal Difference | -2 |
| Points | 12 |
| Points / Game | 1.71 |
| Win Rate | 57.1% |
| GD / Game | -0.29 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability72.42%
Draw Probability17.45%
Away Probability10.13%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
1.03 — 1.33
Wins1,204
Losses796
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.50
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
VillaLast 6 completed
25 Oct
Villa
1 – 3
Lijabatho
24 Oct
Killarney Celtic
2 – 4
Villa
22 Oct
Villa
2 – 0
Mbarara City
17 Oct
Lifofane
3 – 0
Villa
14 Oct
Police
1 – 6
Villa
11 Oct
Villa
1 – 1
LMPS
Blacks PowerLast 6 completed
24 Oct
Blacks Power
3 – 2
URA SC
11 Oct
Mbarara City
2 – 1
Blacks Power
08 Oct
Blacks Power
0 – 4
Vipers
15 Sep
BUL
2 – 1
Blacks Power
08 Sep
Maroons
1 – 2
Blacks Power