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Match Centre TURKEY - Turkish Cup - Qualification Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
TURKEY flag TURKEY - Turkish Cup - Qualification • 27 Oct 2026

Inegol Kafkas

HOME
10:30
1:4
Finished

K. İstiklalspor

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
3.93
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value66.04%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample585Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate34.7%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI35.49%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 3.93
23.6%
DrawOdds 4.04
22.9%
Away WinOdds 1.73
53.5%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 3.93 2.15 +83.11%
XDraw
 4.04 4.87 -17.05%
2Away Win
 1.73 3.04 -43.13%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 2.00 1.49 +34.25%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.26 -4.64%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.20 1.87 -35.91%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 3.06 1.71 +79.41%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.35 2.42 -44.15%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet

There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.

League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Inegol Kafkas

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

K. İstiklalspor

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability46.59%
Draw Probability20.53%
Away Probability32.88%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

3.78 — 4.08
Wins203
Losses382
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.09
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Inegol KafkasLast 6 completed
27 Oct Inegol Kafkas 1 – 4 K. İstiklalspor
24 Oct Adana Demirspor 0 – 1 Inegol Kafkas
18 Oct Inegol Kafkas 2 – 1 Sebat Spor Kulubu
10 Oct Ankaraspor 1 – 2 Inegol Kafkas
03 Oct Inegol Kafkas 0 – 1 Musspor
26 Sep Inegol Kafkas 4 – 1 Kastamonuspor
K. İstiklalsporLast 6 completed
27 Oct Inegol Kafkas 1 – 4 K. İstiklalspor
24 Oct Karacabey Bld. 3 – 1 K. İstiklalspor
18 Oct K. İstiklalspor 4 – 1 Serik Spor
10 Oct 12 Bingol 2 – 1 K. İstiklalspor
04 Oct K. İstiklalspor 1 – 0 Ankara Demirspor
26 Sep 52 Orduspor 0 – 1 K. İstiklalspor