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Match Centre Romanian Cup Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ROMANIA flag Romanian Cup • 28 Oct 2026

Minerul Lupeni

HOME
13:00
1:1
Finished

Politehnica Timisoara

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
5.12
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value100.00%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample319Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate34.2%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI76.79%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 5.12
17.7%
DrawOdds 3.36
26.9%
Away WinOdds 1.63
55.4%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 5.12 2.19 +100.00%
XDraw
 3.36 4.59 -26.83%
2Away Win
 1.63 3.07 -46.82%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 2.05 1.48 +38.12%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.28 -2.22%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.10 1.84 -40.16%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 3.87 1.72 +100.00%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.23 2.40 -48.70%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet

There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.

League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Minerul Lupeni

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

Politehnica Timisoara

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability45.60%
Draw Probability21.78%
Away Probability32.62%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

4.97 — 5.27
Wins109
Losses210
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.15
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Minerul LupeniLast 6 completed
28 Oct Minerul Lupeni 1 – 1 Politehnica Timisoara
23 Oct CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 3 – 0 Minerul Lupeni
17 Oct Minerul Lupeni 1 – 1 Pausesti-Otasau
09 Oct CSO Filiasi 0 – 1 Minerul Lupeni
03 Oct Minerul Lupeni 2 – 0 Curtisoara
26 Sep Farcasesti 2 – 1 Minerul Lupeni
Politehnica TimisoaraLast 6 completed
28 Oct Minerul Lupeni 1 – 1 Politehnica Timisoara
24 Oct Politehnica Timisoara 1 – 0 FC Bacau
17 Oct Ramnicu Valcea 0 – 1 Politehnica Timisoara
08 Oct Politehnica Timisoara 1 – 1 Steaua Bucuresti
19 Sep Popesti Leordeni 3 – 4 Politehnica Timisoara
12 Sep Politehnica Timisoara 2 – 1 Stefanesti