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Match Centre KYRGYZSTAN - Premier Liga Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
KYRGYZSTAN flag KYRGYZSTAN - Premier Liga • 28 Oct 2026

Neftchi Kochkor-Ata

HOME
13:00
3:0
Finished

Ilbirs

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
1.75
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-27.67%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate49.2%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-13.82%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.75
53.7%
DrawOdds 4.21
22.3%
Away WinOdds 3.93
23.9%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.75 1.33 +31.80%
XDraw
 4.21 7.02 -39.99%
2Away Win
 3.93 9.59 -59.01%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.25 1.12 +11.96%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.17 +2.89%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.05 4.05 -49.40%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.35 1.14 +18.58%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 3.03 8.22 -63.14%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
Points earned6
Goal difference+4
Odds performance 1.00
Ilbirs
Points earned4
Goal difference+1
Odds performance 1.50
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentNeftchi Kochkor-AtaIlbirs
Kyrgyzaltyn
2–0
WinAway · 15 Oct 2026
3 pts
1–1
DrawHome · 23 Oct 2026
1 pts
Asiagoal Bishkek
3–1
WinHome · 11 Sep 2026
3 pts
1–0
WinAway · 17 Sep 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Neftchi Kochkor-Ata

Position#7
Played28
Wins12
Draws3
Losses13
Goals For41
Goals Against44
Goal Difference-3
Points39
Points / Game1.39
Win Rate42.9%
GD / Game-0.11

Ilbirs

Position#12
Played28
Wins6
Draws11
Losses11
Goals For30
Goals Against48
Goal Difference-18
Points29
Points / Game1.04
Win Rate21.4%
GD / Game-0.64
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability75.31%
Draw Probability14.25%
Away Probability10.43%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.60 — 1.90
Wins984
Losses1,016
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.08
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Neftchi Kochkor-AtaLast 6 completed
28 Oct Neftchi Kochkor-Ata 3 – 0 Ilbirs
20 Oct Neftchi Kochkor-Ata 3 – 2 Toktogul
15 Oct Kyrgyzaltyn 0 – 2 Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
08 Oct Neftchi Kochkor-Ata 0 – 0 Muras United
19 Sep Asia Talas 3 – 2 Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
11 Sep Neftchi Kochkor-Ata 3 – 1 Asiagoal Bishkek
IlbirsLast 6 completed
28 Oct Neftchi Kochkor-Ata 3 – 0 Ilbirs
23 Oct Ilbirs 1 – 1 Kyrgyzaltyn
17 Oct Alga 6 – 0 Ilbirs
08 Oct Ilbirs 0 – 3 Bars
17 Sep Asiagoal Bishkek 0 – 1 Ilbirs
11 Sep Ilbirs 1 – 1 Bishkek City