KENYA - Premier League
•
28 Oct 2026
Mara Sugar
HOME 13:15
0:0
Finished
Leopards
AWAYSelected market
Home Win
2.69
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value13.17%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate39.1%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI4.27%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.69
34.0%DrawOdds 2.69
34.0%Away WinOdds 2.87
31.9% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
2.69 | 2.38 | +13.17% | |
XDraw |
2.69 | 3.76 | -28.45% | |
2Away Win |
2.87 | 3.19 | -10.08% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.35 | 1.46 | -7.30% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.40 | 1.36 | +2.76% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.40 | 1.73 | -18.90% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.81 | 1.74 | +3.74% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
1.93 | 2.34 | -17.62% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet
There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Mara Sugar
| Position | #4 |
| Played | 4 |
| Wins | 1 |
| Draws | 3 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 |
| Goal Difference | 1 |
| Points | 6 |
| Points / Game | 1.50 |
| Win Rate | 25.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.25 |
Leopards
| Position | #5 |
| Played | 4 |
| Wins | 1 |
| Draws | 3 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 |
| Goal Difference | 1 |
| Points | 6 |
| Points / Game | 1.50 |
| Win Rate | 25.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.25 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability42.07%
Draw Probability26.60%
Away Probability31.33%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
2.54 — 2.84
Wins781
Losses1,219
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.90
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Mara SugarLast 6 completed
28 Oct
Mara Sugar
0 – 0
Leopards
24 Oct
Ulinzi Stars
0 – 0
Mara Sugar
20 Oct
Mara Sugar
2 – 1
Mombasa United
11 Oct
3K FC
2 – 2
Mara Sugar
LeopardsLast 6 completed
28 Oct
Mara Sugar
0 – 0
Leopards
25 Oct
Leopards
0 – 0
Shabana
20 Oct
Police FC
1 – 2
Leopards
14 Oct
Leopards
0 – 0
Bandari