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Match Centre EUROPE - UEFA Youth League - Winners Play Offs Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
⚽ EUROPE - UEFA Youth League - Winners Play Offs • 28 Oct 2026

Brera Strumica U19

HOME
13:00
0:3
Finished

Hoffenheim U19

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
13.30
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value100.00%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample15Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate13.3%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI77.33%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 13.30
7.2%
DrawOdds 8.84
10.8%
Away WinOdds 1.16
82.1%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 13.30 1.43 +100.00%
XDraw
 8.84 7.40 +19.50%
2Away Win
 1.16 5.97 -80.58%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 5.30 1.20 +100.00%
12Double Chance 12
 1.05 1.16 -9.19%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.05 3.30 -68.23%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 11.66 1.24 +100.00%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.02 5.17 -80.26%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet

There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.

League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Brera Strumica U19

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

Hoffenheim U19

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability69.74%
Draw Probability13.52%
Away Probability16.74%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

13.15 — 13.45
Wins2
Losses13
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.67
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Brera Strumica U19Last 6 completed
28 Oct Brera Strumica U19 0 – 3 Hoffenheim U19
14 Oct Brera Strumica U19 8 – 0 FC Santa Coloma U19
14 Oct Brera Strumica U19 2 – 3 FC Santa Coloma U19 8-0 Break Time Din. Minsk U19
16 Sep FC Santa Coloma U19 0 – 3 Brera Strumica U19
Hoffenheim U19Last 6 completed
28 Oct Brera Strumica U19 0 – 3 Hoffenheim U19
24 Oct Hoffenheim U19 7 – 1 Stuttgarter Kickers U19
17 Oct Ulm U19 1 – 1 Hoffenheim U19
11 Oct Freiburg U19 3 – 1 Hoffenheim U19
12 Sep Hoffenheim U19 1 – 1 Augsburg U19