⚽SoccerTab
Log in
Back to predictions
Match Centre ESTONIA - Meistriliiga Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ESTONIA flag ESTONIA - Meistriliiga • 28 Oct 2026

Paide

HOME
90+'
0:3
Live

Kalju

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
2.13
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value40.61%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate44.5%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-5.46%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.13
43.9%
DrawOdds 3.74
25.0%
Away WinOdds 3.01
31.1%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.13 1.54 +38.35%
XDraw
 3.74 5.49 -31.87%
2Away Win
 3.01 5.94 -49.34%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.35 1.20 +12.28%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.22 +2.23%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.65 2.85 -42.18%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.60 1.26 +27.07%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.26 4.86 -53.49%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

5 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 33.3%

Based on 5 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Paide
Points earned12
Goal difference+5
Odds performance 1.25
Kalju
Points earned7
Goal difference0
Odds performance 2.14
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentPaideKalju
Narva
2–1
WinHome · 18 Oct 2026
3 pts
2–0
WinHome · 12 Sep 2026
3 pts
Tammeka
2–1
WinHome · 14 Oct 2026
3 pts
3–1
WinAway · 20 Sep 2026
3 pts
Nomme Utd
3–1
WinAway · 19 Sep 2026
3 pts
0–3
LossAway · 17 Oct 2026
0 pts
Parnu JK Vaprus
2–0
WinHome · 16 Sep 2026
3 pts
2–2
DrawAway · 13 Oct 2026
1 pts
Harju JK Laagri
1–2
LossHome · 13 Sep 2026
0 pts
0–1
LossHome · 10 Oct 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Paide

Position#2
Played34
Wins18
Draws6
Losses10
Goals For53
Goals Against41
Goal Difference12
Points60
Points / Game1.76
Win Rate52.9%
GD / Game0.35

Kalju

Position#4
Played34
Wins17
Draws6
Losses11
Goals For58
Goals Against34
Goal Difference24
Points57
Points / Game1.68
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game0.71
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability64.95%
Draw Probability18.22%
Away Probability16.83%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.98 — 2.28
Wins890
Losses1,110
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.02
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
PaideLast 6 completed
28 Oct Paide 0 – 3 Kalju
24 Oct Kuressaare 0 – 1 Paide
18 Oct Paide 2 – 1 Narva
14 Oct Paide 2 – 1 Tammeka
11 Oct Levadia 1 – 0 Paide
19 Sep Nomme Utd 1 – 3 Paide
KaljuLast 6 completed
28 Oct Paide 0 – 3 Kalju
25 Oct Kalju 2 – 1 Flora
17 Oct Nomme Utd 3 – 0 Kalju
13 Oct Parnu JK Vaprus 2 – 2 Kalju
10 Oct Kalju 0 – 1 Harju JK Laagri
20 Sep Tammeka 1 – 3 Kalju