ARGENTINA - Reserve League - Clausura
•
28 Oct 2026
San Lorenzo 2
HOME 45+'
0:1
Live
River Plate 2
AWAYSelected market
Home Win
3.08
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value14.22%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample1,428Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate36.1%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI10.49%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 3.08
30.4%DrawOdds 3.50
26.7%Away WinOdds 2.18
42.9% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
3.08 | 2.70 | +14.22% | |
XDraw |
3.50 | 4.01 | -12.75% | |
2Away Win |
2.18 | 2.63 | -17.19% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.65 | 1.61 | +2.32% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.30 | 1.33 | -2.41% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.35 | 1.59 | -15.06% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
2.26 | 2.02 | +11.64% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
1.60 | 1.98 | -19.04% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
4 shared opponents
San Lorenzo 2
Points earned10
Goal difference+3
Odds performance
1.20
River Plate 2
Points earned6
Goal difference+1
Odds performance
2.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss| Shared opponent | San Lorenzo 2 | River Plate 2 |
|---|---|---|
Racing Club 2 |
3–23 pts |
2–21 pts |
Sarmiento Junin 2 |
1–11 pts |
1–03 pts |
Argentinos Jrs 2 |
1–03 pts |
0–01 pts |
Aldosivi 2 |
3–23 pts |
2–21 pts |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
San Lorenzo 2
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
River Plate 2
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability37.08%
Draw Probability24.93%
Away Probability37.99%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
2.93 — 3.23
Wins516
Losses912
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.94
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
San Lorenzo 2Last 6 completed
28 Oct
San Lorenzo 2
0 – 1
River Plate 2
22 Oct
Racing Club 2
2 – 3
San Lorenzo 2
15 Oct
San Lorenzo 2
1 – 1
Sarmiento Junin 2
14 Oct
San Lorenzo 2
1 – 1
Sarmiento Junin 2
08 Oct
Argentinos Jrs 2
0 – 1
San Lorenzo 2
29 Sep
San Lorenzo 2
3 – 2
Aldosivi 2
River Plate 2Last 6 completed
28 Oct
San Lorenzo 2
0 – 1
River Plate 2
22 Oct
River Plate 2
1 – 1
Velez Sarsfield 2
13 Oct
Instituto 2
3 – 2
River Plate 2
06 Oct
Racing Club 2
2 – 2
River Plate 2
02 Oct
River Plate 2
1 – 0
Sarmiento Junin 2
26 Sep
River Plate 2
2 – 2
Boca Juniors 2