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Match Centre ARGENTINA - Reserve League - Clausura Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ARGENTINA flag ARGENTINA - Reserve League - Clausura • 28 Oct 2026

Estudiantes L.P. 2

HOME
18:00
1:1
Finished

Deportivo Riestra 2

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
2.30
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value47.45%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate42.4%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-3.16%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.30
40.7%
DrawOdds 3.34
28.0%
Away WinOdds 3.00
31.2%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.30 1.56 +47.45%
XDraw
 3.34 5.44 -38.63%
2Away Win
 3.00 5.71 -47.45%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.35 1.21 +11.35%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.23 +6.11%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.60 2.79 -42.57%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.65 1.27 +29.59%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.15 4.66 -53.86%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 16.7%

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Estudiantes L.P. 2
Points earned4
Goal difference+2
Odds performance 1.50
Deportivo Riestra 2
Points earned3
Goal difference+2
Odds performance 2.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentEstudiantes L.P. 2Deportivo Riestra 2
Belgrano 2
2–0
WinAway · 21 Oct 2026
3 pts
1–2
LossAway · 17 Sep 2026
0 pts
Lanus 2
4–4
DrawHome · 14 Oct 2026
1 pts
4–1
WinHome · 10 Sep 2026
3 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Estudiantes L.P. 2

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00

Deportivo Riestra 2

Position#0
Played0
Wins0
Draws0
Losses0
Goals For0
Goals Against0
Goal Difference0
Points0
Points / Game0.00
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game0.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability64.11%
Draw Probability18.37%
Away Probability17.52%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.15 — 2.45
Wins847
Losses1,153
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.97
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Estudiantes L.P. 2Last 6 completed
28 Oct Estudiantes L.P. 2 1 – 1 Deportivo Riestra 2
21 Oct Belgrano 2 0 – 2 Estudiantes L.P. 2
14 Oct Estudiantes L.P. 2 4 – 4 Lanus 2
06 Oct Newells Old Boys 2 1 – 1 Estudiantes L.P. 2
29 Sep Estudiantes L.P. 2 2 – 0 Defensa y Justicia 2
23 Sep Gimnasia L.P. 2 2 – 0 Estudiantes L.P. 2
Deportivo Riestra 2Last 6 completed
28 Oct Estudiantes L.P. 2 1 – 1 Deportivo Riestra 2
22 Oct Deportivo Riestra 2 3 – 1 Central Cordoba 2
14 Oct San Martin S.J. 2 2 – 0 Deportivo Riestra 2
07 Oct Deportivo Riestra 2 3 – 1 Ind. Rivadavia 2
01 Oct Colon Santa Fe 2 0 – 1 Deportivo Riestra 2
24 Sep Deportivo Riestra 2 3 – 0 Barracas Central 2