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Match Centre ALBANIA - Kategoria e Parë Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ALBANIA flag ALBANIA - Kategoria e Parë • 28 Oct 2026

Beselidhja Lezha

HOME
12:30
5:2
Finished

Sopoti Librazhd

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
1.58
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value27.73%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate53.6%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-14.81%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.58
58.5%
DrawOdds 3.92
23.6%
Away WinOdds 5.16
17.9%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.58 1.60 -1.07%
XDraw
 3.92 5.52 -28.96%
2Away Win
 5.16 5.19 -0.60%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.15 1.24 -7.15%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.22 -1.75%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.25 2.67 -15.88%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.22 1.31 -6.70%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 3.99 4.25 -6.12%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

4 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 25.0%

Based on 4 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Beselidhja Lezha
Points earned7
Goal difference+3
Odds performance 1.71
Sopoti Librazhd
Points earned4
Goal difference-4
Odds performance 3.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentBeselidhja LezhaSopoti Librazhd
Flamurtari
0–1
LossAway · 23 Oct 2026
0 pts
0–2
LossAway · 10 Oct 2026
0 pts
Kastrioti
4–1
WinHome · 17 Oct 2026
3 pts
1–1
DrawHome · 20 Sep 2026
1 pts
Burreli
0–0
DrawAway · 11 Oct 2026
1 pts
3–1
WinAway · 16 Sep 2026
3 pts
Besa Kavaje
2–1
WinHome · 20 Sep 2026
3 pts
0–4
LossHome · 12 Sep 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Beselidhja Lezha

Position#7
Played8
Wins3
Draws2
Losses3
Goals For12
Goals Against9
Goal Difference3
Points11
Points / Game1.38
Win Rate37.5%
GD / Game0.38

Sopoti Librazhd

Position#10
Played8
Wins1
Draws4
Losses3
Goals For10
Goals Against17
Goal Difference-7
Points7
Points / Game0.88
Win Rate12.5%
GD / Game-0.88
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability62.61%
Draw Probability18.12%
Away Probability19.26%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.43 — 1.73
Wins1,072
Losses928
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.21
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Beselidhja LezhaLast 6 completed
28 Oct Beselidhja Lezha 5 – 2 Sopoti Librazhd
23 Oct Flamurtari 1 – 0 Beselidhja Lezha
17 Oct Beselidhja Lezha 4 – 1 Kastrioti
11 Oct Burreli 0 – 0 Beselidhja Lezha
06 Oct Beselidhja Lezha 2 – 1 Sopoti Librazhd
20 Sep Beselidhja Lezha 2 – 1 Besa Kavaje
Sopoti LibrazhdLast 6 completed
28 Oct Beselidhja Lezha 5 – 2 Sopoti Librazhd
24 Oct Sopoti Librazhd 1 – 1 Oriku
17 Oct Pogradeci 2 – 2 Sopoti Librazhd
10 Oct Flamurtari 2 – 0 Sopoti Librazhd
06 Oct Beselidhja Lezha 2 – 1 Sopoti Librazhd
20 Sep Sopoti Librazhd 1 – 1 Kastrioti