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Match Centre ALBANIA - Abissnet Superiore Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ALBANIA flag ALBANIA - Abissnet Superiore • 28 Oct 2026

AF Elbasani

HOME
59'
0:1
Live

Partizani

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
1.65
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-16.26%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate53.5%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-11.15%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.65
56.1%
DrawOdds 3.71
25.0%
Away WinOdds 4.89
18.9%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.65 1.45 +13.61%
XDraw
 3.71 5.88 -36.87%
2Away Win
 4.89 7.08 -30.92%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.15 1.16 -1.25%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.21 +3.73%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.10 3.21 -34.60%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.25 1.21 +3.72%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 3.71 5.87 -36.84%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

4 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 41.7%

Based on 4 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
AF Elbasani
Points earned5
Goal difference0
Odds performance 2.40
Partizani
Points earned0
Goal difference-8
Odds performance N/A
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentAF ElbasaniPartizani
Skenderbeu
1–2
LossAway · 17 Oct 2026
0 pts
0–2
LossHome · 24 Oct 2026
0 pts
Vora
1–1
DrawHome · 10 Oct 2026
1 pts
1–4
LossAway · 18 Oct 2026
0 pts
KF Tirana
2–2
DrawAway · 20 Sep 2026
1 pts
1–3
LossHome · 11 Oct 2026
0 pts
Egnatia
2–1
WinHome · 13 Sep 2026
3 pts
1–2
LossAway · 20 Sep 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

AF Elbasani

Position#8
Played8
Wins1
Draws5
Losses2
Goals For9
Goals Against10
Goal Difference-1
Points8
Points / Game1.00
Win Rate12.5%
GD / Game-0.13

Partizani

Position#10
Played8
Wins1
Draws1
Losses6
Goals For9
Goals Against19
Goal Difference-10
Points4
Points / Game0.50
Win Rate12.5%
GD / Game-1.25
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability68.86%
Draw Probability17.02%
Away Probability14.13%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.50 — 1.80
Wins1,070
Losses930
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.16
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
AF ElbasaniLast 6 completed
28 Oct AF Elbasani 0 – 1 Partizani
24 Oct Teuta 0 – 0 AF Elbasani
17 Oct Skenderbeu 2 – 1 AF Elbasani
17 Oct Skenderbeu 1 – 1 AF Elbasani
10 Oct AF Elbasani 1 – 1 Vora
20 Sep KF Tirana 2 – 2 AF Elbasani
PartizaniLast 6 completed
28 Oct AF Elbasani 0 – 1 Partizani
24 Oct Partizani 0 – 2 Skenderbeu
18 Oct Vora 4 – 1 Partizani
11 Oct Partizani 1 – 3 KF Tirana
20 Sep Egnatia 2 – 1 Partizani
12 Sep Partizani 2 – 4 Dinamo City