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Match Centre ALBANIA - Abissnet Superiore Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ALBANIA flag ALBANIA - Abissnet Superiore • 28 Oct 2026

Vora

HOME
12:30
2:1
Finished

Vllaznia

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
2.64
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-25.70%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate38.5%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI0.66%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.64
35.1%
DrawOdds 3.25
28.5%
Away WinOdds 2.54
36.4%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.64 1.39 +89.97%
XDraw
 3.25 6.32 -48.55%
2Away Win
 2.54 8.19 -68.98%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.45 1.14 +27.29%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.19 +9.42%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.45 3.57 -59.34%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.91 1.17 +63.29%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.83 6.89 -73.45%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team has the better goal difference

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Vora
Points earned0
Goal difference-3
Odds performance N/A
Vllaznia
Points earned0
Goal difference-4
Odds performance N/A
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentVoraVllaznia
Laci
0–1
LossAway · 24 Oct 2026
0 pts
0–2
LossAway · 13 Sep 2026
0 pts
Teuta
0–2
LossAway · 12 Sep 2026
0 pts
0–2
LossHome · 18 Sep 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Vora

Position#5
Played9
Wins3
Draws2
Losses4
Goals For10
Goals Against14
Goal Difference-4
Points11
Points / Game1.22
Win Rate33.3%
GD / Game-0.44

Vllaznia

Position#9
Played9
Wins2
Draws2
Losses5
Goals For10
Goals Against15
Goal Difference-5
Points8
Points / Game0.89
Win Rate22.2%
GD / Game-0.56
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability71.96%
Draw Probability15.83%
Away Probability12.21%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.49 — 2.79
Wins770
Losses1,230
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.87
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
VoraLast 6 completed
28 Oct Vora 2 – 1 Vllaznia
24 Oct Laci 1 – 0 Vora
18 Oct Vora 4 – 1 Partizani
10 Oct AF Elbasani 1 – 1 Vora
19 Sep Vora 1 – 1 Skenderbeu
12 Sep Teuta 2 – 0 Vora
VllazniaLast 6 completed
28 Oct Vora 2 – 1 Vllaznia
24 Oct Vllaznia 2 – 0 KF Tirana
18 Oct Egnatia 3 – 1 Vllaznia
11 Oct Vllaznia 1 – 0 Dinamo City
18 Sep Vllaznia 0 – 2 Teuta
13 Sep Laci 2 – 0 Vllaznia