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Match Centre SLOVENIA - 2. SNL Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SLOVENIA flag SLOVENIA - 2. SNL • 27 Oct 2026

Ilirija

HOME
13:00
3:0
Finished

Bilje

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
1.73
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value3.37%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate49.9%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-13.38%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.73
54.1%
DrawOdds 4.08
22.9%
Away WinOdds 4.08
22.9%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.73 1.62 +7.08%
XDraw
 4.08 5.69 -28.29%
2Away Win
 4.08 4.87 -16.26%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.20 1.26 -4.63%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.21 -1.09%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.05 2.62 -21.89%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.33 1.33 -0.12%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 3.14 4.02 -21.81%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

5 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team has the better goal difference

Based on 5 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Ilirija
Points earned6
Goal difference-2
Odds performance 2.50
Bilje
Points earned6
Goal difference-4
Odds performance 2.50
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentIlirijaBilje
NK Krka
2–1
WinHome · 10 Oct 2026
3 pts
2–0
WinHome · 17 Oct 2026
3 pts
Beltinci
2–4
LossHome · 04 Oct 2026
0 pts
1–5
LossAway · 10 Oct 2026
0 pts
Jadran Dekani
0–1
LossAway · 25 Sep 2026
0 pts
2–0
WinHome · 06 Oct 2026
3 pts
Krsko Posavje
2–0
WinHome · 19 Sep 2026
3 pts
1–3
LossAway · 27 Sep 2026
0 pts
NK Jesenice
1–3
LossAway · 12 Sep 2026
0 pts
0–2
LossHome · 20 Sep 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Ilirija

Position#5
Played12
Wins6
Draws1
Losses5
Goals For20
Goals Against12
Goal Difference8
Points19
Points / Game1.58
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game0.67

Bilje

Position#7
Played12
Wins6
Draws0
Losses6
Goals For20
Goals Against25
Goal Difference-5
Points18
Points / Game1.50
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game-0.42
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability61.90%
Draw Probability17.58%
Away Probability20.53%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.58 — 1.88
Wins997
Losses1,003
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.11
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
IlirijaLast 6 completed
27 Oct Ilirija 3 – 0 Bilje
16 Oct Ilirija 0 – 1 Tabor Sezana
10 Oct Ilirija 2 – 1 NK Krka
04 Oct Ilirija 2 – 4 Beltinci
25 Sep Jadran Dekani 1 – 0 Ilirija
19 Sep Ilirija 2 – 0 Krsko Posavje
BiljeLast 6 completed
27 Oct Ilirija 3 – 0 Bilje
23 Oct NK Bistrica 4 – 3 Bilje
17 Oct Bilje 2 – 0 NK Krka
10 Oct Beltinci 5 – 1 Bilje
06 Oct Bilje 2 – 0 Jadran Dekani
27 Sep Krsko Posavje 3 – 1 Bilje