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Match Centre SAUDI ARABIA - Saudi Professional League Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
SAUDI ARABIA flag SAUDI ARABIA - Saudi Professional League • 27 Oct 2026

Abha

HOME
12:40
0:1
Finished

Al Faisaly

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
2.53
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value12.08%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate41.5%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI4.92%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.53
38.0%
DrawOdds 3.44
27.9%
Away WinOdds 2.82
34.1%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.53 2.23 +13.42%
XDraw
 3.44 4.39 -21.65%
2Away Win
 2.82 3.09 -8.65%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.45 1.48 -1.97%
12Double Chance 12
 1.35 1.29 +4.25%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.55 1.81 -14.49%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.77 1.72 +2.75%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.98 2.38 -16.95%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Home team has the better goal difference

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Abha
Points earned0
Goal difference-1
Odds performance N/A
Al Faisaly
Points earned0
Goal difference-2
Odds performance N/A
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentAbhaAl Faisaly
Al Nassr
1–2
LossAway · 09 Sep 2026
0 pts
1–3
LossHome · 23 Oct 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Abha

Position#18
Played10
Wins0
Draws2
Losses8
Goals For6
Goals Against18
Goal Difference-12
Points2
Points / Game0.20
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game-1.20

Al Faisaly

Position#16
Played7
Wins0
Draws3
Losses4
Goals For5
Goals Against13
Goal Difference-8
Points3
Points / Game0.43
Win Rate0.0%
GD / Game-1.14
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability44.83%
Draw Probability22.78%
Away Probability32.39%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.38 — 2.68
Wins829
Losses1,171
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals2.86
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
AbhaLast 6 completed
27 Oct Abha 0 – 1 Al Faisaly
24 Oct Neom SC 2 – 0 Abha
16 Oct Al Qadsiah 2 – 1 Abha
15 Oct Al Qadsiah 2 – 1 Abha
13 Sep Al Diriyah 0 – 0 Abha
09 Sep Al Nassr 2 – 1 Abha
Al FaisalyLast 6 completed
27 Oct Abha 0 – 1 Al Faisaly
23 Oct Al Faisaly 1 – 3 Al Nassr
20 Oct Al Shabab 2 – 2 Al Faisaly
15 Oct Al Faisaly 3 – 2 Al Kholood