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Match Centre PORTUGAL - Liga Next Gen U23 Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
PORTUGAL flag PORTUGAL - Liga Next Gen U23 • 27 Oct 2026

Moreirense U23

HOME
13:00
2:0
Finished

Gil Vicente U23

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
1.82
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value20.66%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate48.3%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-12.48%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.82
51.5%
DrawOdds 3.78
24.8%
Away WinOdds 3.94
23.8%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.82 1.37 +32.49%
XDraw
 3.78 6.26 -39.58%
2Away Win
 3.94 8.91 -55.80%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.25 1.13 +10.98%
12Double Chance 12
 1.25 1.19 +5.02%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.95 3.68 -46.96%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.37 1.15 +18.71%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.96 7.49 -60.47%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet

There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.

League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Moreirense U23

Position#7
Played10
Wins3
Draws6
Losses1
Goals For20
Goals Against10
Goal Difference10
Points15
Points / Game1.50
Win Rate30.0%
GD / Game1.00

Gil Vicente U23

Position#17
Played10
Wins2
Draws2
Losses6
Goals For10
Goals Against16
Goal Difference-6
Points8
Points / Game0.80
Win Rate20.0%
GD / Game-0.60
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability72.80%
Draw Probability15.98%
Away Probability11.22%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.67 — 1.97
Wins965
Losses1,035
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.13
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Moreirense U23Last 6 completed
27 Oct Moreirense U23 2 – 0 Gil Vicente U23
20 Oct Benfica U23 1 – 1 Moreirense U23
13 Oct Moreirense U23 7 – 0 Santa Clara U23
06 Oct Rio Ave U23 1 – 1 Moreirense U23
19 Sep Estrela U23 2 – 2 Moreirense U23
14 Sep Moreirense U23 1 – 1 Braga U23
Gil Vicente U23Last 6 completed
27 Oct Moreirense U23 2 – 0 Gil Vicente U23
17 Oct Sporting CP U23 2 – 0 Gil Vicente U23
13 Oct Gil Vicente U23 1 – 2 Vizela U23
21 Sep Leiria U23 0 – 1 Gil Vicente U23
15 Sep Gil Vicente U23 2 – 0 Portimonense U23
08 Sep Maritimo U23 1 – 1 Gil Vicente U23