PORTUGAL - Liga Next Gen U23
•
27 Oct 2026
Estoril U23
HOME 11:00
2:1
Finished
Santa Clara U23
AWAYSelected market
Home Win
1.99
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value0.82%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate44.3%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-12.10%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.99
47.0%DrawOdds 3.90
24.0%Away WinOdds 3.23
29.0% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
1.99 | 1.31 | +51.58% | |
XDraw |
3.90 | 7.17 | -45.58% | |
2Away Win |
3.23 | 10.13 | -68.10% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.30 | 1.11 | +17.16% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.25 | 1.16 | +7.56% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.75 | 4.20 | -58.30% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.51 | 1.13 | +33.67% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
2.45 | 8.71 | -71.88% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet
There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Estoril U23
| Position | #3 |
| Played | 10 |
| Wins | 5 |
| Draws | 5 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 21 |
| Goals Against | 15 |
| Goal Difference | 6 |
| Points | 20 |
| Points / Game | 2.00 |
| Win Rate | 50.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.60 |
Santa Clara U23
| Position | #15 |
| Played | 8 |
| Wins | 2 |
| Draws | 4 |
| Losses | 2 |
| Goals For | 7 |
| Goals Against | 13 |
| Goal Difference | -6 |
| Points | 10 |
| Points / Game | 1.25 |
| Win Rate | 25.0% |
| GD / Game | -0.75 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability76.17%
Draw Probability13.95%
Away Probability9.88%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
1.84 — 2.14
Wins886
Losses1,114
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.06
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Estoril U23Last 6 completed
27 Oct
Estoril U23
2 – 1
Santa Clara U23
20 Oct
Leixoes U23
2 – 2
Estoril U23
09 Oct
Estoril U23
1 – 0
Sporting CP U23
05 Oct
Torreense U23
2 – 3
Estoril U23
22 Sep
Academico Viseu U23
1 – 1
Estoril U23
08 Sep
Estoril U23
4 – 2
Famalicao U23
Santa Clara U23Last 6 completed
27 Oct
Estoril U23
2 – 1
Santa Clara U23
20 Oct
Santa Clara U23
1 – 1
Braga U23
13 Oct
Moreirense U23
7 – 0
Santa Clara U23
06 Oct
Leiria U23
1 – 1
Santa Clara U23
29 Sep
Santa Clara U23
2 – 2
Felgueiras U23
22 Sep
Santa Clara U23
0 – 0
Portimonense U23