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Match Centre NETHERLANDS - Divisie 1 U19 - Fall Season Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
NETHERLANDS flag NETHERLANDS - Divisie 1 U19 - Fall Season • 27 Oct 2026

Feyenoord U19

HOME
12:00
8:2
Finished

Graafschap U19

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
1.58
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value0.26%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate54.0%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-14.21%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.58
57.1%
DrawOdds 4.33
20.8%
Away WinOdds 4.08
22.1%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 1.58 1.59 -0.37%
XDraw
 4.33 6.35 -31.82%
2Away Win
 4.08 4.72 -13.52%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.15 1.27 -9.38%
12Double Chance 12
 1.15 1.19 -3.11%
X2Double Chance X2
 2.10 2.71 -22.42%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.30 1.34 -2.71%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 3.35 3.97 -15.72%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

2 shared opponents
Evidence overview

Home team has the better goal difference

Based on 2 shared opponents. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Feyenoord U19
Points earned1
Goal difference-1
Odds performance 6.00
Graafschap U19
Points earned1
Goal difference-3
Odds performance 6.00
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentFeyenoord U19Graafschap U19
Ajax U19
2–2
DrawHome · 24 Oct 2026
1 pts
1–1
DrawHome · 12 Sep 2026
1 pts
Nijmegen U19
4–5
LossAway · 15 Sep 2026
0 pts
3–6
LossAway · 19 Sep 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Feyenoord U19

Position#1
Played8
Wins4
Draws2
Losses2
Goals For29
Goals Against16
Goal Difference13
Points14
Points / Game1.75
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game1.63

Graafschap U19

Position#6
Played9
Wins2
Draws3
Losses4
Goals For17
Goals Against24
Goal Difference-7
Points9
Points / Game1.00
Win Rate22.2%
GD / Game-0.78
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability63.06%
Draw Probability15.75%
Away Probability21.20%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.43 — 1.73
Wins1,080
Losses920
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.22
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Feyenoord U19Last 6 completed
27 Oct Feyenoord U19 8 – 2 Graafschap U19
24 Oct Feyenoord U19 2 – 2 Ajax U19
21 Oct Betis U19 1 – 4 Feyenoord U19
17 Oct Graafschap U19 0 – 2 Feyenoord U19
14 Oct Feyenoord U19 1 – 0 Como U19
10 Oct AZ Alkmaar U19 3 – 0 Feyenoord U19
Graafschap U19Last 6 completed
27 Oct Feyenoord U19 8 – 2 Graafschap U19
24 Oct PSV U19 1 – 2 Graafschap U19
17 Oct Graafschap U19 0 – 2 Feyenoord U19
10 Oct Graafschap U19 3 – 3 Sparta Rotterdam U19
22 Sep Graafschap U19 5 – 1 PSV U19
19 Sep Nijmegen U19 6 – 3 Graafschap U19