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Match Centre INDONESIA - Super League Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
INDONESIA flag INDONESIA - Super League • 27 Oct 2026

PSS Sleman

HOME
08:30
1:2
Finished

Borneo

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
2.78
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value67.81%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate39.9%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI10.75%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.78
33.7%
DrawOdds 3.38
27.7%
Away WinOdds 2.42
38.7%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.78 1.92 +44.43%
XDraw
 3.38 4.44 -23.84%
2Away Win
 2.42 3.92 -38.26%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.55 1.34 +15.45%
12Double Chance 12
 1.30 1.29 +0.71%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.40 2.08 -32.73%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 2.01 1.49 +34.80%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 1.75 3.04 -42.36%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Home team has the better goal difference

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
PSS Sleman
Points earned0
Goal difference-1
Odds performance N/A
Borneo
Points earned0
Goal difference-2
Odds performance N/A
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentPSS SlemanBorneo
Dewa United
1–2
LossAway · 20 Sep 2026
0 pts
1–3
LossHome · 15 Sep 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

PSS Sleman

Position#15
Played7
Wins1
Draws1
Losses5
Goals For10
Goals Against13
Goal Difference-3
Points4
Points / Game0.57
Win Rate14.3%
GD / Game-0.43

Borneo

Position#12
Played6
Wins3
Draws0
Losses3
Goals For6
Goals Against7
Goal Difference-1
Points9
Points / Game1.50
Win Rate50.0%
GD / Game-0.17
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability51.95%
Draw Probability22.53%
Away Probability25.51%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

2.63 — 2.93
Wins798
Losses1,202
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.01
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
PSS SlemanLast 6 completed
27 Oct PSS Sleman 1 – 2 Borneo
22 Oct Persik Kediri 2 – 1 PSS Sleman
18 Oct Persebaya 2 – 2 PSS Sleman
11 Oct PSS Sleman 3 – 0 PSM Makassar
20 Sep Dewa United 2 – 1 PSS Sleman
12 Sep PSS Sleman 1 – 3 Madura United
BorneoLast 6 completed
27 Oct PSS Sleman 1 – 2 Borneo
11 Oct Java United 2 – 1 Borneo
07 Oct Buriram 0 – 0 Borneo
20 Sep Borneo 1 – 0 Bali United
15 Sep Borneo 1 – 3 Dewa United
12 Sep Persijap Jepara 0 – 1 Borneo