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Match Centre ENGLAND - Professional Development League Analysis
SOCCERTAB ANALYSIS
ENGLAND - Professional Development League • 27 Oct 2026

Bristol City U21

HOME
13:00
1:3
Finished

Millwall U21

AWAY
Selected market
Home Win
2.09
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-2.71%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate45.0%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-6.16%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model

1X2 probability distribution

Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.

100% normalized
Home WinOdds 2.09
44.8%
DrawOdds 4.27
21.9%
Away WinOdds 2.82
33.2%
The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner

All available markets

Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.

MarketCurrent OddsFair OddsValue
1Home Win
 2.09 1.54 +35.56%
XDraw
 4.27 6.02 -29.08%
2Away Win
 2.82 5.40 -47.75%
1XDouble Chance 1X
 1.40 1.23 +14.06%
12Double Chance 12
 1.20 1.20 +0.07%
X2Double Chance X2
 1.70 2.85 -40.27%
DNB1Draw No Bet 1
 1.63 1.29 +26.78%
DNB2Draw No Bet 2
 2.20 4.50 -51.12%
Comparative form

Common-opponent evidence

How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.

1 shared opponent
Evidence overview

Home team performed better by 100.0%

Based on 1 shared opponent. Historical comparison only; it does not guarantee the result.
Bristol City U21
Points earned3
Goal difference+3
Odds performance 1.00
Millwall U21
Points earned0
Goal difference-1
Odds performance N/A
Match-by-match comparisonMost recent completed result against each shared opponent
Win Draw Loss
Shared opponentBristol City U21Millwall U21
Charlton U21
4–1
WinHome · 06 Oct 2026
3 pts
0–1
LossAway · 29 Sep 2026
0 pts
League strength

Recent-form Poisson model

Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.

FORM MODEL

Bristol City U21

Position#8
Played8
Wins3
Draws3
Losses2
Goals For19
Goals Against15
Goal Difference4
Points12
Points / Game1.50
Win Rate37.5%
GD / Game0.50

Millwall U21

Position#17
Played5
Wins1
Draws0
Losses4
Goals For5
Goals Against10
Goal Difference-5
Points3
Points / Game0.60
Win Rate20.0%
GD / Game-1.00
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability64.86%
Draw Probability16.61%
Away Probability18.53%
Historical evidence

Comparable-odds performance

Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.

1.94 — 2.24
Wins899
Losses1,101
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.01
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form

Recent completed matches

Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.

6 each
Bristol City U21Last 6 completed
27 Oct Bristol City U21 1 – 3 Millwall U21
21 Oct Norwich U21 1 – 1 Bristol City U21
18 Oct QPR U21 3 – 1 Bristol City U21
12 Oct Bristol City U21 3 – 5 Exeter U21
06 Oct Bristol City U21 4 – 1 Charlton U21
22 Sep Bristol City U21 4 – 1 Hull U21
Millwall U21Last 6 completed
27 Oct Bristol City U21 1 – 3 Millwall U21
09 Oct Millwall U21 1 – 0 West Ham U21
29 Sep Charlton U21 1 – 0 Millwall U21
14 Sep Millwall U21 0 – 3 Bolton U21