COLOMBIA - Primera A - Clausura
•
27 Oct 2026
Santa Fe
HOME 01:05
2:1
Finished
Bucaramanga
AWAYSelected market
Home Win
1.98
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-20.72%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate44.8%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-11.71%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.98
48.4%DrawOdds 3.36
28.5%Away WinOdds 4.17
23.0% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
1.98 | 2.50 | -20.72% | |
XDraw |
3.36 | 3.70 | -9.25% | |
2Away Win |
4.17 | 3.03 | +37.41% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.25 | 1.49 | -16.19% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.35 | 1.37 | -1.46% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.85 | 1.67 | +10.93% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
1.38 | 1.82 | -24.30% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
2.90 | 2.22 | +30.93% |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Santa Fe
| Position | #4 |
| Played | 15 |
| Wins | 8 |
| Draws | 4 |
| Losses | 3 |
| Goals For | 23 |
| Goals Against | 15 |
| Goal Difference | 8 |
| Points | 28 |
| Points / Game | 1.87 |
| Win Rate | 53.3% |
| GD / Game | 0.53 |
Bucaramanga
| Position | #6 |
| Played | 15 |
| Wins | 6 |
| Draws | 7 |
| Losses | 2 |
| Goals For | 23 |
| Goals Against | 15 |
| Goal Difference | 8 |
| Points | 25 |
| Points / Game | 1.67 |
| Win Rate | 40.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.53 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability40.04%
Draw Probability27.01%
Away Probability32.95%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
1.83 — 2.13
Wins896
Losses1,104
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.08
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
Santa FeLast 6 completed
27 Oct
Santa Fe
2 – 1
Bucaramanga
22 Oct
Santa Fe
2 – 1
Jaguares de Cordoba
20 Oct
Llaneros
1 – 0
Santa Fe
11 Oct
Santa Fe
2 – 2
Fortaleza
06 Oct
Ind. Medellin
0 – 1
Santa Fe
29 Sep
Pereira
1 – 2
Santa Fe
BucaramangaLast 6 completed
27 Oct
Santa Fe
2 – 1
Bucaramanga
24 Oct
Chico
1 – 0
Bucaramanga
18 Oct
Bucaramanga
1 – 1
America De Cali
14 Oct
Bucaramanga
1 – 1
Aguilas
05 Oct
Bucaramanga
3 – 1
Junior
26 Sep
Once Caldas
1 – 3
Bucaramanga