BOLIVIA - Division Profesional
•
27 Oct 2026
Bolivar
HOME 00:00
2:1
Finished
Universitario de Vinto
AWAYSelected market
Home Win
1.11
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value-40.84%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample2,000Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate58.7%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI-32.77%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 1.11
84.0%DrawOdds 8.42
11.1%Away WinOdds 18.80
5.0% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
1.11 | 1.88 | -40.84% | |
XDraw |
8.42 | 4.50 | +87.05% | |
2Away Win |
18.80 | 4.08 | +100.00% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
1.00 | 1.32 | -24.49% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.05 | 1.29 | -18.33% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
5.80 | 2.14 | +100.00% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
0.99 | 1.46 | -32.17% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
16.77 | 3.18 | +100.00% |
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Bolivar
| Position | #1 |
| Played | 23 |
| Wins | 17 |
| Draws | 3 |
| Losses | 3 |
| Goals For | 58 |
| Goals Against | 23 |
| Goal Difference | 35 |
| Points | 54 |
| Points / Game | 2.35 |
| Win Rate | 73.9% |
| GD / Game | 1.52 |
Universitario de Vinto
| Position | #13 |
| Played | 23 |
| Wins | 6 |
| Draws | 3 |
| Losses | 14 |
| Goals For | 30 |
| Goals Against | 45 |
| Goal Difference | -15 |
| Points | 21 |
| Points / Game | 0.91 |
| Win Rate | 26.1% |
| GD / Game | -0.65 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability53.29%
Draw Probability22.21%
Away Probability24.49%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
1.01 — 1.26
Wins1,173
Losses827
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.57
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
BolivarLast 6 completed
27 Oct
Bolivar
2 – 1
Universitario de Vinto
25 Oct
Bolivar
0 – 0
Miranda
22 Oct
Real Potosi
3 – 1
Bolivar
21 Oct
Real Potosi
3 – 1
Bolivar
18 Oct
Avila
2 – 3
Bolivar
18 Oct
Nacional Potosi
0 – 1
Bolivar
Universitario de VintoLast 6 completed
27 Oct
Bolivar
2 – 1
Universitario de Vinto
18 Oct
Universitario de Vinto
2 – 1
SA Bulo Bulo
10 Oct
Universitario de Vinto
1 – 3
Real Oruro
08 Oct
Oriente Petrolero
2 – 0
Universitario de Vinto
04 Oct
The Strongest
5 – 2
Universitario de Vinto
29 Sep
Universitario de Vinto
3 – 1
Guabira