Azerbaijan Cup
•
27 Oct 2026
Marafon
HOME 10:00
1:0
Finished
Zaqatala
AWAYSelected market
Home Win
5.37
Current bookmaker price
Expected Value100.00%Vs form-based fair odds
Historical Sample415Comparable odds records
Historical Hit Rate42.9%Wins among decided matches
Historical ROI129.65%Flat 1-unit calculation
Probability model
1X2 probability distribution
Bookmaker odds and their normalized 1X2 probabilities.
100% normalized
Home WinOdds 5.37
17.3%DrawOdds 4.60
20.1%Away WinOdds 1.48
62.6% The displayed 1X2 probabilities show the bookmaker market. Expected value is calculated separately against the shared recent-form Poisson model, using only completed matches before kickoff.
Market scanner
All available markets
Compare each current bookmaker odd with the fair price from the shared recent-form model.
| Market | Current Odds | Fair Odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1Home Win |
5.37 | 2.29 | +100.00% | |
XDraw |
4.60 | 4.13 | +11.42% | |
2Away Win |
1.48 | 3.12 | -52.61% | |
1XDouble Chance 1X |
2.50 | 1.47 | +69.95% | |
12Double Chance 12 |
1.15 | 1.32 | -12.86% | |
X2Double Chance X2 |
1.10 | 1.78 | -38.13% | |
DNB1Draw No Bet 1 |
4.33 | 1.73 | +100.00% | |
DNB2Draw No Bet 2 |
1.19 | 2.37 | -49.72% |
Comparative form
Common-opponent evidence
How both teams performed against the same league opponents before this fixture.
0 shared opponents
No common-opponent evidence yet
There are no shared opponents with completed league results recorded before this fixture. The comparison will appear when qualifying results are available.
League strength
Recent-form Poisson model
Recent completed results, venue-specific scoring and goals conceded estimate fair probabilities. The strongest 1X2 outcome is selected first, then the highest expected-value eligible market is identified.
FORM MODEL
Marafon
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Zaqatala
| Position | #0 |
| Played | 0 |
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 0 |
| Goals For | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 |
| Goal Difference | 0 |
| Points | 0 |
| Points / Game | 0.00 |
| Win Rate | 0.0% |
| GD / Game | 0.00 |
Calculation: Recency-weighted goals scored and conceded, separate home/away performance, league scoring baseline, sample-size shrinkage and home advantage feed a Poisson score model. Fair odds are compared with bookmaker odds to calculate expected value.
Home Probability43.76%
Draw Probability24.22%
Away Probability32.02%
Historical evidence
Comparable-odds performance
Completed matches where the same market traded within the selected odds range.
5.22 — 5.52
Wins178
Losses237
Voids / Draws0
Avg. Goals3.27
Historical data is descriptive. Small samples may produce unstable percentages, and missing odds or scores are excluded.
Team form
Recent completed matches
Only the recent completed matches of the two teams in this analysis are shown.
6 each
MarafonLast 6 completed
27 Oct
Marafon
1 – 0
Zaqatala
ZaqatalaLast 6 completed
27 Oct
Marafon
1 – 0
Zaqatala
22 Oct
Gancabasar
7 – 0
Zaqatala
15 Oct
Zaqatala
1 – 3
Sabail
07 Oct
Sahdag Qusar
6 – 0
Zaqatala
16 Sep
Karvan
3 – 0
Zaqatala
10 Sep
Zaqatala
3 – 0
Baku Sporting